Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06c0df09653473ec401762b7842d1c558f0959ce5190d7cd279b28c3545619b1

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $706,020
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $307,039

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $706,020 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	25,298$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	21,243$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	20,130$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.13	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	0c	19,980$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	17,011$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	16,473$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.61	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	12,926$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.71	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9384…45e0backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes	0c	11,155$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	7,856$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.13	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	5,827$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,659$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.37	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	5,555$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.43	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	4,895$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.72	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,712$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	3,963$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.82	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	3,832$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.13	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	3,658$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	3,380$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	3,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,965$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	4c	2,500$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.95	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	4c	2,498$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	2,338$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.83	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,317$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.94	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	3c	2,280$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.6	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,245$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.53	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	6c	2,200$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.7	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9384…8a95backed Yes	2c	2,030$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.89	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,007$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.61	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	1c	1,913$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,863$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	1,834$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,500$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.2	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	7c	1,430$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.59	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	4c	1,400$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.02	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	1,335$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.86	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	1,300$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.27	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	1,270$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.22	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	5c	1,214$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,137$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	9c	1,130$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.42	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…5e0bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.31	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x233d…6197backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	2c	999.51$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	939.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	919.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	2c	900.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	3c	872.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	800$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.36	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	7c	790.71$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	7c	702.01$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.79	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	2c	667.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	667.68$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	4c	662.47$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.72	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	6c	656.39$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.29	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	645.83$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.93	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	624.34$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	5c	611.14$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	6c	550$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd00…e02fbacked Yes	4c	505.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	8c	503.13$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	6c	500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.88	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	4c	488.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	8c	456.49$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	7c	438.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	7c	400.16$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	381.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a75…f655backed Yes	4c	375$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes	3c	349.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	345.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	3c	341.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	4c	334.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d6b…5263backed Yes	9c	333.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	325.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	5c	324.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	310$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes	4c	292.73$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a95…e65dbacked Yes	4c	278.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd30a…25e9backed Yes	7c	273.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-92.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d70…2471backed Yes	7c	266.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2300…9a8ebacked Yes	7c	246.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.76	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	7c	227.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes	6c	225.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	197	26.9%53 W · 144 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	6c	224.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	9c	222.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa728…2dc8backed Yes	9c	220.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c0…42b5backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	23cpaid	+184.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	6c	199.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3695…0c7cbacked Yes	7c	196.94$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac2…6d07backed Yes	7c	196.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	186.52$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes	7c	172$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event