Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e871613d07149542805f250dc8749230a7d9a64b3c0d0494a78c84305b444c

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 15, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $982,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $787,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $982,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0224…292abacked Yes	0c	100,000$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.72	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	30,479$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	0c	30,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	20,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	17,315$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.35	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…c664backed Yes	0c	17,138$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.27	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+30%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	17,039$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.47	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	16,665$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	15,596$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.62	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f09…03a8backed Yes	1c	13,578$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	1c	13,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	12,602$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.26	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,810$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.98	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	9,832$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	0c	9,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	0c	9,492$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45e9…ce97backed Yes	0c	8,442$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	0c	8,279$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	5,945$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.02	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafce…363fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	4,644$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes	0c	4,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,151$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	4,055$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes	1c	4,030$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	1c	3,916$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	3,876$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,459$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	1c	3,226$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	0c	2,944$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	0c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	2,131$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.71	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	1c	2,040$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,890$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	1c	1,873$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,708$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c50…3badbacked Yes	1c	1,649$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,590$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	1,490$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.69	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,293$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes	2c	1,142$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,080$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes	2c	999.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	899.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	883.46$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.62	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes	5c	745.95$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f9…a9ddbacked Yes	3c	544.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes	2c	538.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	464.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	431.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d3…6781backed Yes	5c	406.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes	5c	298.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	4c	254.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event