Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b391a7a29ec31b02683095b93beec7e448ef014b783d177eac863b16e2cf58

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 14, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $510,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $309,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $510,904 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	36,680$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.68	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x528b…a33ebacked Yes	0c	18,465$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5164…f17cbacked Yes	0c	18,425$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	11,359$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	10,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	10,233$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	10,122$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4406…c664backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+30%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,942$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	3,267$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,875$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.82	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c6…a836backed Yes	0c	2,463$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,447$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.98	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,850$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,598$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,411$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2c6…61fbbacked Yes	3c	1,269$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f09…03a8backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes	2c	1,180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9f…259fbacked Yes	3c	906.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebfd…dd70backed Yes	1c	800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25df…cbb7backed Yes	3c	786.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	731.93$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	700.2$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	460$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	374.9$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabc2…46c4backed Yes	4c	353.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event