Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eefc52eb94f3d597ebb1dd0d171438b8a4d170e0d7afbe7b1b250b23be85e20

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $657,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $179,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $657,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	61,110$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,998$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	15,515$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	14,267$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.18	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	14,052$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	13,857$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	12,986$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,776$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.78	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,760$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	7,966$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.03	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	7,593$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.95	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	0c	6,442$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	6,430$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,133$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.19	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,056$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.98	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	5,171$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.61	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	5,060$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.5	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	4,428$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.65	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	3,651$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.64	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,555$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.32	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	2c	3,524$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.56	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	2,738$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.1	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	4c	2,713$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.92	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	2,500$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	2,453$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,286$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.53	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	6c	2,267$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.26	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	2,184$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.3	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,178$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.62	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,070$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.02	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	5c	2,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.94	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	1,877$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.68	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	3c	1,720$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	7c	1,538$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	1,500$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb795…020cbacked Yes	3c	1,500$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	1,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	1,261$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.8	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	6c	1,230$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	1,229$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	2c	1,191$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.67	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	2c	1,138$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	4c	1,100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	4c	1,016$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.52	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf544…4646backed Yes	7c	1,010$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.9	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	3c	1,005$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.57	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	1,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.01	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	982.06$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	5c	978.62$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.02	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…9e29backed Yes	6c	900$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+88.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a12…619ebacked Yes	4c	893.95$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.32	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	851.8$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.96	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…9554backed Yes	3c	831.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	810$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	4c	783.12$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.11	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4de7…a074backed Yes	4c	764.27$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	5c	756.84$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.68	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	756.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	731.27$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc616…3571backed Yes	9c	708.93$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.04	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	3c	699.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	3c	668$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	5c	640.67$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9384…8a95backed Yes	2c	628.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc66f…b7dabacked Yes	6c	605.64$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	65	12.3%8 W · 57 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	7c	600$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	72	8.3%6 W · 66 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-27%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	556.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	6c	555.53$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	4c	536.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c50…3badbacked Yes	2c	533.45$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	7c	501.21$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.87	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d42…aa9cbacked Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	4c	499.48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	6c	496.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	494.24$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb928…db56backed Yes	9c	482.79$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.87	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	4c	479$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	4c	455.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	6c	449.92$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.3	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	7c	419.42$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.62	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed Yes	4c	404$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	4c	400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	399.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	384.48$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes	5c	371.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	4c	360$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef10…1d95backed Yes	8c	350$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	9c	331.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	6c	329.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	8c	302.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe935…778dbacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.8	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d9…c2a3backed Yes	7c	295.08$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event