Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b40b7aab9823e85a3b4d1bb531334f14e1b1a8081e8d585bbbf3685a29e4c2a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $420,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $101,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $420,136 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	34,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	11,948$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.37	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	0c	6,188$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,320$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	4,547$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.11	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	4,449$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	4,160$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.18	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	0c	3,911$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	5c	3,896$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.2	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,263$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,042$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cce…8c59backed Yes	1c	2,806$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,654$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.63	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,651$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	2,639$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,474$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	2c	2,416$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	2c	2,335$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.77	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,268$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.27	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	2,200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.04	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	2,041$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.53	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.56	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,956$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.24	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	1,828$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,789$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	1c	1,753$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	3c	1,700$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.09	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	1,386$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.34	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	1,301$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.55	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,236$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	4c	1,184$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.35	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,130$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,075$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	1,020$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.48	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	3c	1,013$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.84	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.16	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	5c	999.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	5c	939.02$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	4c	917.73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.06	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	4c	871.61$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	805.29$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	800$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	3c	607.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	3c	547.92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	5c	490.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	463.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	462.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.3	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	5c	403.77$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.73	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes	5c	400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	5c	397.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d16…4d02backed Yes	3c	362.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	267.46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes	5c	229.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+41%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event