TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7eef…d34e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Lol at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT348.8%3 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.29
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.8
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.01
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+63.9%+$15.6
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$83.51
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$17.58
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$71.31
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$431Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$430.58
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$15.57
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$23.72
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$74.76
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$11.1
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$27.12
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+61.6%+$55.23
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$34.71
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$31.93
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$18.6
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19.7
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-91.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.07
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.29
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.64
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.1
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.39
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winnerbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.64
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.5
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.13
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$8.1
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.45
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
All 16 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.58
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.67
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$39
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.79
Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.43
Will CBS Sports App: Scores & News be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.36
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$31.88
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.57
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.93
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+520.5%+$488.34
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$16.19
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$88.28
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$26.14
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+165.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$138.1
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+430.6%+$105.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+106.2%+$148.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.