AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78bef3bb8deb46c8fb5fb9876c6438c8373150ad0419c639df3adc4c38d61b75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 10c | 12,039$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.44 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…188dbacked No | 12c | 9,882$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 21c | 3,359$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 15c | 3,191$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.98 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 14c | 1,189$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.14 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 27c | 1,121$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.04 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 969.85$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.86 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 24c | 916.94$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.55 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 783.81$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 604.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 27c | 539.55$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 16c | 526.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…4c36backed Yes | 73c | 405.67$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb03e…1091backed Yes | 72c | 276.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 78c | 257.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 31c | 251.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 245.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 26c | 214.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 24c | 213.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 66c | 210.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 36c | 204.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3424…6b9fbacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…3bcfbacked Yes | 64c | 172.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 160.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…b56bbacked Yes | 69c | 144.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c1…fc9abacked Yes | 77c | 138.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…4a67backed Yes | 69c | 123.64$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 31c | 110.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 102.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 30c | 99.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…b665backed Yes | 73c | 98.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…06b3backed Yes | 73c | 97.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 96.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 88.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 64c | 88.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 19c | 85.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 69c | 79.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 73c | 68.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 65.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…6c43backed Yes | 73c | 61.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ce…5ab3backed Yes | 72c | 61.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 21c | 61.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7245…93a0backed Yes | 66c | 60.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…bd2ebacked Yes | 77c | 58.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 71c | 54.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…e948backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…7eadbacked No | 29c | 49.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 32c | 47.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked No | 27c | 46.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37c…710abacked Yes | 70c | 42.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 68c | 42.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 70c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…3968backed Yes | 70c | 24.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c59…c2c0backed Yes | 75c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 70c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
- Will Google be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.