AI · resolved market
Will CBS Sports App: Scores & News be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ce84ec940578fcf12a76224fa22d1a819e166bc34c13af72c52ab4ef4d93ba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,526 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 3c | 890.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99dc…7d0abacked Yes | 36c | 829.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed No | 64c | 777.58$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.55 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8033backed Yes | 35c | 722.1$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 3c | 628.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…54bbbacked Yes | 28c | 623.42$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 10c | 414.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 4c | 365$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…bb0fbacked Yes | 6c | 356.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 166.49$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Yes | 25c | 156.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 16c | 141.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 20c | 122.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 122.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 13c | 110.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…dfffbacked Yes | 21c | 105.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 24c | 92.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 80c | 61.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2707backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 46.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 45.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…1e11backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 20.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b14…4c89backed No | 80c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CBS Sports App: Scores & News be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Yes won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.