TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,819 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53bf…bc10backed Yes68c9,213$6,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,975.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80dd…69a8backed No32c5,107$1,641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4604…444abacked No21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050785.7%6 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.61per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes79c4,005$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-4.4wins-0.62per pick77cpaid-81.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes51c3,432$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.656453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No63c1,206$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.46536.9%24 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6fe…b5d1backed Yes79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210616.7%1 W · 5 L-3.5wins-0.59per pick76cpaid-78.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3de3…765fbacked No42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaf…58e8backed No36c921$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c778.66$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.9547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked No6c584.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.431520%3 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes74c530$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes68c499.99$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1623740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d8e…54bbbacked No35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No35c400$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x061c…8b9abacked Yes62c350$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d68…ca5ebacked No34c300$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb2…c37cbacked No25c290$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No27c285.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.814643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes77c258.2$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6320544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No18c237.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3972935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Yes64c235.94$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes62c229.08$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.922222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b0f…8033backed No44c228.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x200e…4048backed No30c220.94$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11a…e32bbacked No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a5…2165backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes66c191.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6721035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No36c190$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.454351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e9…d896backed No36c170.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.322050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x171f…4a67backed Yes75c165.25$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.61366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd25f…b448backed Yes65c154.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a6…6865backed Yes65c154$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed No25c154$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.510034%34 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d6…13bcbacked No38c154$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe2…0d54backed Yes65c153.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6516…7b7cbacked No48c152.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.681241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e5…3c0abacked Yes63c150$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde06…0dfabacked Yes64c140.55$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No41c138.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8113422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fec…6f28backed No34c124$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No44c123.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.722133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x562b…a1a0backed No33c122$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56a3…444bbacked Yes72c111.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c111.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8719120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No36c100.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5220148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb143…e991backed Yes68c100.84$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b83…0a52backed Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yes56c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae2…b101backed Yes63c99.99$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4833…1b65backed Yes70c99.97$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1578…cef0backed No33c99.58$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked No34c92.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.552948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…923abacked No27c92.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4e…7c1abacked Yes65c84.5$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed No38c76.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.822744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No38c74.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.55950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a19…c9d9backed Yes73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No26c66.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2813738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x055c…369abacked Yes76c65.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…571abacked Yes65c64.64$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.64366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No28c62.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.333432.4%11 W · 23 L-7.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-47.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x52ce…1da9backed No32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203050%15 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x973b…0a46backed Yes69c62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5e…7972backed Yes51c58.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.46475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e22…3518backed Yes66c58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No35c57.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.851963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x662b…eb47backed No34c55.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b4…2d43backed No43c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.03837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+66.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked No40c52.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…f16cbacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x608d…3933backed Yes60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6118…d31dbacked Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…9061backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes59c47.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.325324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes41c47.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.02137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-81.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7f…5b93backed Yes62c47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d4…e4b1backed Yes67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…b2cfbacked Yes69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes57c41.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.061172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No43c41.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.718650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No34c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.84944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfec…015abacked Yes66c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb0…ce15backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x536d…07fdbacked Yes62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7152…5abcbacked Yes79c34.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.335100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ab…f8efbacked Yes72c32.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b54…5effbacked Yes63c31.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae2…49b6backed Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f9f…45e0backed No63c31.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes66c30.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed Yes53c29.84$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+54.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes69c28.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4cc…5d69backed Yes66c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.