AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14138dbf9f350a03e3af0d7a249dc81591f4346b2bd1b70ab5b28eaa2e5045dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,741 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d68…ca5ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,210$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 56c | 1,134$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.52 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 1c | 1,094$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…53e6backed Yes | 26c | 989.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 3c | 891.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80dd…69a8backed Yes | 24c | 548.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…06b3backed Yes | 41c | 535.84$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 45c | 488.61$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…bb0fbacked Yes | 44c | 451.17$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 24c | 419.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 56c | 416.5$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.87 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…dfffbacked Yes | 20c | 362.53$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 10c | 304.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 75c | 247.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 214.71$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…f3d0backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…58e8backed Yes | 31c | 175.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed Yes | 14c | 146$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.34per pick | 42cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9344…e1e6backed Yes | 27c | 144.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 14c | 134$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed Yes | 14c | 112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 110.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 108.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…0321backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7759…eeb2backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed Yes | 28c | 92.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 28c | 91.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 69c | 90.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 85.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 57c | 81.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…96d5backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 60c | 73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 72.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…985dbacked Yes | 42c | 66.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235b…6b6cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 50.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4833…1b65backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…7dacbacked No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 47.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 47.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed No | 67c | 45.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…433fbacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 38.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…29e6backed Yes | 43c | 37.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…ba31backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 54c | 35.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 60c | 31.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…8c32backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 65c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 74c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked No | 57c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b02…04aabacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 73c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…4334backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?this page
- Will CBS Sports App: Scores & News be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
- Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?Yes won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.