Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x071eeb403c962005612e82fe1e462a23408e5294a6538c9488ece048a94bdf64

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $682,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $345,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $682,299 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	20,615$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,310$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.06	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	13,565$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.63	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	13,409$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	12,887$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.2	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	0c	10,200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	0c	10,067$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	9,285$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.22	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	8,791$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	0c	7,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	0c	7,274$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.71	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	6,748$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,467$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.19	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	6,172$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	2c	5,704$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.61	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f20…5d9bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…4055backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	5,000$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.99	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	4,643$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	4,545$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.46	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	4,380$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.31	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	5c	4,349$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,915$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,731$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.33	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	3,047$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,968$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.47	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	1c	2,961$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.81	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	2,691$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.14	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	2,376$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.43	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,336$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.83	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	2,000$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,888$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9310…adf9backed Yes	1c	1,777$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,638$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.51	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	4c	1,620$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.8	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	3c	1,579$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.49	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes	1c	1,555$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	4c	1,541$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.83	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5966…4c9ebacked Yes	1c	1,539$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11cf…5bedbacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+4.1wins	+0.26per pick	31cpaid	+181.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc838…c420backed Yes	1c	1,489$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	1,470$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,368$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	1,212$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	2c	1,200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	4c	1,180$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	3c	1,140$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	1c	1,020$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	999.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes	3c	987.32$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.39	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fe…c51abacked Yes	3c	823.27$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.69	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	817.03$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	1c	800$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d0…580ebacked Yes	3c	766.37$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	764.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5542…656cbacked Yes	4c	674.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.01	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a2…293bbacked Yes	3c	649.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	595.06$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…5e0bbacked Yes	2c	584.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	5c	560$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.76	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…dc58backed Yes	2c	505.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	4c	466.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	5c	432.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	3c	399.39$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	3c	397.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes	5c	349.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.97	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+41%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76ca…f77bbacked Yes	4c	341.63$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b9a…05f1backed Yes	4c	339.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.61	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	5c	252.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…1595backed Yes	7c	180.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event