Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81186975ca9aedeac7ecf5b073cc426ffa072dde46c87ddabff0dab1a8822429

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $322,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,734 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	10,658$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.9	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x58fd…43a6backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.13per pick	14cpaid	+119.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	7,067$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.34	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	11c	4,996$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.19	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,180$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,717$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824a…3100backed Yes	2c	3,619$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	3,539$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	3,524$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.45	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	8c	3,496$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc603…9bdabacked Yes	1c	3,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	3,323$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.18	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	3,159$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	9c	2,920$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,763$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.57	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	2,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.18	252	11.5%29 W · 223 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5853…144dbacked Yes	2c	2,480$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	42	19%8 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	2,250$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	2,238$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.6	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,976$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,861$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.43	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,860$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.79	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes	14c	1,800$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.8	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	8c	1,751$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.59	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	1c	1,700$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3d…7946backed Yes	1c	1,690$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	11c	1,567$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.2	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	8c	1,389$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.73	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,285$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.31	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	12c	1,267$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x006d…5cd7backed Yes	4c	1,255$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	14cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	1,135$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.39	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	9c	1,135$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes	3c	1,080$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.01	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0575…4c16backed Yes	6c	1,001$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes	1c	951.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	96	26%25 W · 71 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…d253backed Yes	4c	914.23$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes	3c	853.17$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.84	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4db6…eb6cbacked Yes	12c	843.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	25cpaid	-90%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb941…3647backed Yes	12c	830.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	1c	778.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes	10c	752.31$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.69	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	11c	747.42$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.6	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	658.39$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6316…6bbabacked Yes	2c	648.74$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+144.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	12c	599.98$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.62	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	555.81$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	4c	549.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes	10c	500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	7c	500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	11c	499.2$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.69	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	3c	477.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	10c	458.35$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.32	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e2…8ec6backed Yes	2c	442$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	7c	437.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	8c	428.54$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.08	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…1ca6backed Yes	6c	428.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	11c	408.88$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.72	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2498…e6a7backed Yes	10c	389.03$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+124.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	7c	381.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes	6c	374.44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…e0d3backed Yes	10c	355.46$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.48	105	6.7%7 W · 98 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+36%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d96…0c7fbacked Yes	10c	330$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+41.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes	8c	315.52$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.21	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5db1…0627backed Yes	10c	300.15$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.99	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	11c	300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.91	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacc1…06afbacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+72.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c02…53c6backed Yes	10c	299.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	284.68$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2147…a818backed Yes	9c	280$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.85	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe86a…7b4cbacked Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes	13c	238.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b69…2beabacked Yes	9c	223.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…13f0backed Yes	9c	221.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes	10c	208.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	7c	207$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	10c	203.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	7c	200.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da4…131fbacked Yes	13c	195.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	9c	192.22$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes	11c	185.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	115	29.6%34 W · 81 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2feb…29c3backed Yes	11c	182.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90a…34a2backed Yes	8c	178.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4723…5687backed Yes	11c	176.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	12c	165.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	163.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a16…2243backed Yes	11c	160.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	-84.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02cd…7cc7backed Yes	8c	152.01$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed Yes	11c	150.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	8c	144.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.92	195	50.3%98 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d5…853dbacked Yes	8c	132.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	9c	126.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event