Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0f109eeacbeeb6f7c9e86f940b887e8868c19d0d3e59fa70603ced21829f7f

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $860,524
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $472,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $860,524 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	47,013$1,702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,702.39	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	6c	21,629$1,332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,331.7	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	18,085$1,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,406.53	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	12c	16,727$1,951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,951.49	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Yes	0c	15,045$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,331$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	11,500$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.08	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	11,267$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	10,350$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	1c	10,141$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.07	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	1c	8,756$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.9	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,654$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.36	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	8,544$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.99	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	8,070$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	16c	7,530$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	0c	7,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	6,822$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.91	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	6,757$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.81	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8093…b208backed Yes	2c	6,700$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	6c	5,917$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.94	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	0c	5,819$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.46	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,466$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.23	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	3c	5,315$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	3c	4,793$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.77	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,719$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.81	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	4,579$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.86	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	11c	4,314$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	2c	4,005$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.74	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898e…99adbacked Yes	4c	3,558$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.95	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	8c	3,540$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.54	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	13c	3,306$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	3c	3,189$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	3,155$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.84	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	3,146$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	3,121$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.67	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	3,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,897$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.19	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	4c	2,872$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.4	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,715$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.42	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,650$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	2,500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	6c	2,500$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.76	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	2,466$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.54	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	10c	2,182$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	4c	2,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	8c	2,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,993$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.75	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,942$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.66	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	4c	1,888$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.94	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	1,866$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.95	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	8c	1,788$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.43	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	4c	1,688$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	6c	1,609$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.68	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	1,545$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.97	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	11c	1,509$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.14	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	7c	1,453$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	1,450$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	1,434$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.23	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	1,391$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.4	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	9c	1,300$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.35	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe935…778dbacked Yes	9c	1,300$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.82	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	2c	1,206$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	2c	1,199$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.13	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	13c	1,186$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.13	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	1,160$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.89	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes	2c	1,147$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	2c	1,120$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	3c	1,106$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	3c	1,105$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.73	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	14c	1,097$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.98	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	7c	1,082$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.59	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	1c	1,062$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	2c	1,040$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	1,000$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	3c	999.78$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	13c	999.63$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.02	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	1c	953.95$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	1c	936.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	12c	900$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	899.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.73	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	890.77$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.7	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	811.12$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.21	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	7c	800$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.7	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	7c	800$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.4	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae0…9f81backed Yes	8c	717.98$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	+10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	2c	700.92$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…5e0bbacked Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	12c	684.93$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.94	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	2c	684.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x132d…457dbacked Yes	2c	666.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	657.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e10…012bbacked Yes	5c	644.83$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.89	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event