Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0644799bb478568238ebf79633378e5e1d87463c5b09bf3fe40f05fbb28249aa

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $740,519
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $336,937

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $740,519 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	89,531$4,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,585.87	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	31,231$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	5c	20,861$1,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,142.61	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	15,058$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.19	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	8c	11,132$926 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$926.18	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	11,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,733$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	0c	10,032$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	10,026$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	9,277$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	2c	7,548$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	0c	7,192$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,667$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.53	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	6,625$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.68	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	6,559$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.25	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	6,330$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.22	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,969$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.51	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	5,888$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.66	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	5,396$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.87	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	5,000$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.48	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	4,659$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.46	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	4,305$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	13c	4,076$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	4,028$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	12c	3,941$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.6	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	3,801$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.64	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	3,625$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,494$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.03	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	1c	3,470$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.93	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d3…f300backed Yes	1c	3,076$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	0c	2,922$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe921…6a6dbacked Yes	8c	2,807$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.61	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	4cpaid	+577.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	4c	2,709$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.91	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	2,708$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.17	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	2,692$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.51	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,668$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.36	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	2,509$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.82	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	1c	2,452$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	2,237$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.38	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,004$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.17	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	4c	2,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	2,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	10c	2,000$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.99	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	2c	1,888$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.73	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	5c	1,874$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.55	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	3c	1,793$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.08	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	7c	1,749$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62b1…4ac0backed Yes	1c	1,700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	8c	1,558$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	1,538$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.04	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	10c	1,535$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.75	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes	7c	1,525$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	7c	1,485$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.74	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdb…75dbbacked Yes	1c	1,437$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb10…d6fbbacked Yes	4c	1,248$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	9c	1,243$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes	5c	1,237$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.3	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,220$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.18	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	8c	1,199$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.09	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	1,160$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes	12c	1,150$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.4	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	1,137$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.74	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	5c	1,127$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.31	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0333…7d70backed Yes	2c	1,050$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	1,000$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76ca…f77bbacked Yes	4c	913.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	2c	890.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	4c	835.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	3c	818.08$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf5…fd4abacked Yes	2c	809.73$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.21per pick	4cpaid	+390.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	7c	761.21$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	3c	742.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0587…e3b1backed Yes	9c	739.77$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.48	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	708.06$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes	2c	703.35$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcff4…8b0ebacked Yes	3c	699.96$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes	4c	675.29$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes	7c	614.38$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	8c	610.41$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	3c	607.4$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	604.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	8c	601.73$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes	2c	599.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	5c	599.52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes	3c	599.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	595.78$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x501e…d3b0backed Yes	3c	584.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	7c	579.4$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	5c	577.28$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	12c	575$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.13	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52e…8f85backed Yes	3c	549.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	3c	522.06$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b37…8b98backed Yes	12c	521.19$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes	5c	520.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	5c	513.83$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.71	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event