Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x814bf672aa616cd0c702d242e0e894799649a7041fd9ed62756a7d8157912c31

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $919,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $500,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $919,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	34,867$4,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,031.88	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,886$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Yes	0c	23,514$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.57	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	16,892$1,626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,626.48	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	15,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	12c	12,252$1,510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,510.28	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	11,522$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	9c	10,545$963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.14	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	10,099$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,404.33	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	7c	9,480$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.52	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes	1c	9,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	8,088$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111.12	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	12c	8,022$965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$965.06	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	8,001$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147.13	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	10c	7,899$764 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$764.36	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	2c	6,374$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.54	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	1c	6,213$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.17	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	6,195$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.93	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	5,966$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	5,874$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.22	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	5,787$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.5	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	5,563$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	5,000$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.91	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	15c	4,880$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	1c	4,813$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.74	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	6c	4,773$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.66	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes	14c	4,400$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.7	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	4,296$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	13c	4,018$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.12	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	4,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	3,822$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.19	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	3,766$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes	14c	3,603$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	13c	3,363$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,336$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.73	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	8c	3,295$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffc…1787backed Yes	1c	3,214$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	7cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	6c	3,152$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.5	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	10c	3,142$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.44	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	14c	3,111$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	3,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.54	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	2,902$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.71	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	7c	2,864$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes	2c	2,812$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.89	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	5c	2,762$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	4c	2,694$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.66	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	15c	2,467$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.37	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	3c	2,406$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.01	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	2,392$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.86	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	2,247$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.1	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	13c	2,200$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.89	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	3c	2,194$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.96	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	14c	2,069$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.7	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	4c	2,000$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	1,984$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.48	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	16c	1,963$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.73	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,905$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.54	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,858$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	1c	1,831$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.33	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	1,726$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	14c	1,671$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.35	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	1,647$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.14	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	1,639$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	9c	1,609$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.47	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes	2c	1,600$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	5c	1,508$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.13	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,454$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.98	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	4c	1,439$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.74	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	15c	1,437$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.89	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	13c	1,427$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.99	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes	15c	1,400$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.55	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	5c	1,373$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	16c	1,353$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	1,351$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	14c	1,324$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.53	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	4c	1,302$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.26	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6763…4631backed Yes	1c	1,288$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.13	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	6c	1,284$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.55	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	7c	1,275$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.63	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	2c	1,247$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.82	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	6c	1,211$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	11c	1,209$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.21	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	6c	1,122$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.61	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	1,105$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.03	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	2c	1,098$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	18c	1,092$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes	15c	1,089$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.29	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	26cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	10c	1,058$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.92	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	1,050$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.62	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	1,001$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.79	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes	4c	1,001$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f7…9a6bbacked Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	14c	999.99$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.55	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event