Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf44be44443ce01401fd5f2f90fe8564d22ac66c513d059ad6e1d204cbcf1246b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,036,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $610,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,036,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 14c | 47,739$6,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,672.99 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…69d8backed No | 80c | 17,500$13,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,517.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +132.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 12c | 15,867$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.19 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…1cf9backed Yes | 17c | 13,047$2,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.54 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 0c | 12,137$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 11,988$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.86 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 12c | 10,529$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.89 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…6931backed Yes | 2c | 9,987$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 9,215$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.19 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 14c | 9,175$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.04 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 2c | 8,151$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.42 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 8,011$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.94 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 17c | 7,700$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.6 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 15c | 7,208$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.63 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 6,759$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.74 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,748$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 153 | 9.8%15 W · 138 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 6c | 5,716$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 7c | 5,599$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.02 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 0c | 5,555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 4,853$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.48 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 14c | 4,400$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.71 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,373$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…160abacked Yes | 2c | 4,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…6352backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…8986backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…21b4backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 4,139$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.99 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes | 4c | 4,123$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.6 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…5bd0backed Yes | 2c | 4,100$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…4183backed Yes | 2c | 4,100$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…4fc3backed Yes | 2c | 4,100$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…0070backed Yes | 2c | 4,100$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,049$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3137…d06dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ce…95f4backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…d400backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 480 | 6.9%33 W · 447 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…e966backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…011fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…1c96backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…5272backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…89e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b44…5efbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 3,876$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.92 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…38b0backed Yes | 2c | 3,800$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc672…668ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd760…db85backed Yes | 2c | 3,800$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 20c | 3,733$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 21c | 3,603$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.12 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 3,516$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…3ce3backed Yes | 18c | 3,391$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.23 | 121 | 18.2%22 W · 99 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 14c | 3,186$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.49 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,140$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 22c | 2,979$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.64 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes | 6c | 2,912$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…177cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,800$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.3 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 16c | 2,780$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.7 | 172 | 8.7%15 W · 157 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…4471backed Yes | 4c | 2,610$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…02b4backed Yes | 20c | 2,506$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 78c | 2,500$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.19 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 10c | 2,453$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.27 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,442$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233d…6197backed Yes | 1c | 2,419$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 2,400$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.33 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8154…3634backed Yes | 5c | 2,204$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 231 | 7.4%17 W · 214 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 14c | 2,200$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.5 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed Yes | 1c | 2,175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 122 | 4.9%6 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +213.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65e…814ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,102$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.33 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,095$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,093$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 12.6%16 W · 111 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…4059backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…04e4backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 178 | 5.6%10 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,975$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 7c | 1,900$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.32 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,863$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 95 | 8.4%8 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 4c | 1,753$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.3 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 17c | 1,722$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.35 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,722$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 11c | 1,702$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.34 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 19c | 1,600$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 244 | 12.7%31 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…2599backed Yes | 10c | 1,596$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 168 | 17.3%29 W · 139 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…c16bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,580$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.07 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,561$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.83 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,521$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…e619backed Yes | 4c | 1,493$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 76c | 1,473$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.48 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes | 7c | 1,379$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 89 | 16.9%15 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…c6efbacked Yes | 14c | 1,374$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0383…7eefbacked Yes | 7c | 1,257$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 263 | 14.8%39 W · 224 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…ea70backed Yes | 13c | 1,233$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d31…4443backed Yes | 13c | 1,208$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 19c | 1,206$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.95 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d1…2206backed Yes | 13c | 1,200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.