TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,036,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$610,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,036,039 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes14c47,739$6,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,672.994816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c19,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed No80c17,500$13,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,517.56141%25 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+132.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes12c15,867$1,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.191,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes17c13,047$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.54219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes0c12,137$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.53644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c11,988$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.861,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes12c10,529$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.89806.3%5 W · 75 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes2c9,987$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.74120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c9,215$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.1978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes14c9,175$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.0451410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes2c8,151$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4210610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c8,011$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.942,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes17c7,700$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.624423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes15c7,208$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.6368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes12c6,759$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.7422718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes1c6,748$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.381539.8%15 W · 138 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes6c5,716$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3265909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes7c5,599$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0270616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes0c5,555$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1125617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c4,853$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.4876821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes14c4,400$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.713408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c4,373$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.912,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd80…160abacked Yes2c4,200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f4e…6352backed Yes2c4,200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x805f…8986backed Yes2c4,200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1b…21b4backed Yes2c4,200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes12c4,139$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9960127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes4c4,123$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.61007%7 W · 93 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-24.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdcc3…5bd0backed Yes2c4,100$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…4183backed Yes2c4,100$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdb…4fc3backed Yes2c4,100$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5e…0070backed Yes2c4,100$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes2c4,049$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.644869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3137…d06dbacked Yes2c4,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ce…95f4backed Yes2c4,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa32d…d400backed Yes2c4,000$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7204806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2608…e966backed Yes2c3,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0720…011fbacked Yes2c3,900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e56…1c96backed Yes2c3,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5254…5272backed Yes2c3,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…89e8backed Yes2c3,900$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b44…5efbbacked Yes2c3,900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c3,876$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.9299619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edc…38b0backed Yes2c3,800$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc672…668ebacked Yes2c3,800$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd760…db85backed Yes2c3,800$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes20c3,733$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75718618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes21c3,603$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.1224115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes4c3,516$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.967966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes18c3,391$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.2312118.2%22 W · 99 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes14c3,186$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.4918722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes4c3,140$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.67417.6%13 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes4c3,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.35718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes22c2,979$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.645215.4%8 W · 44 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes6c2,912$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180468.7%4 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+67.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…177cbacked Yes11c2,800$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.33432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+171.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes16c2,780$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.71728.7%15 W · 157 L+0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes4c2,610$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.192114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes20c2,506$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No78c2,500$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.1924873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes10c2,453$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.275198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,442$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.731,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x233d…6197backed Yes1c2,419$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes14c2,400$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.3345911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c2,400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.631,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes5c2,204$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.022317.4%17 W · 214 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes14c2,200$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.541610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes1c2,175$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.081224.9%6 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+213.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes16c2,102$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.332817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c2,095$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.911,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes2c2,093$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.88120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c2,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2838811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012712.6%16 W · 111 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes2c2,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+150.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.991785.6%10 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c1,975$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.294568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes7c1,900$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3282714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c1,863$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.433986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes2c1,800$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6958.4%8 W · 87 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes4c1,753$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.33622.2%8 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-62.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes17c1,722$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.357035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes9c1,722$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.517304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes11c1,702$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3410817.6%19 W · 89 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes19c1,600$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29624412.7%31 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes10c1,596$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15416817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes11c1,580$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.074420.5%9 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+65.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes16c1,561$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8313318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes13c1,521$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.2459225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes4c1,493$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.736613.6%9 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No76c1,473$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.4820924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes7c1,379$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.938916.9%15 W · 74 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes14c1,374$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes7c1,257$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9026314.8%39 W · 224 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes13c1,233$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.16506%3 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes13c1,208$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.765913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes19c1,206$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.9514411.1%16 W · 128 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes13c1,200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.35616.1%9 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.