Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3f625e0d8b209aa407f328a4c0017086603c10c034b8db083a6dbf9bab67e9

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $208,109
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,109 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa4dc…0da7backed Yes	0c	7,438$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	5,334$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.29	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,985$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.43	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes	7c	3,969$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.43	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	3,656$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.72	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,524$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.78	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,083$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x824a…3100backed Yes	0c	3,063$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,818$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	1c	2,657$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,578$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.03	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,444$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,425$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,071$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	1c	1,887$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,827$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.25	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,694$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.53	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6999…933ebacked Yes	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	5c	1,423$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,401$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes	5c	1,009$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.06	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	782.29$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.84	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	672.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	6c	595.84$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.84	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	6c	509.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4430…215ebacked Yes	4c	502.31$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	2c	500.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c87…eb0dbacked Yes	2c	426.66$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ac…5e19backed Yes	6c	402.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+73.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	4c	311.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8147…294cbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8da4…131fbacked Yes	8c	252.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…b8cdbacked Yes	6c	211.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.31	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	170.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event