Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3262d515b2c7cce172d811dcc1295a56c7af2c833915c890d62c49553ecc97

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $609,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $336,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	77,013$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d06…4e49backed Yes	0c	48,827$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	0c	19,229$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes	0c	11,710$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ba…4586backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	14c	10,841$1,554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,554.45	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	10,825$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.53	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,395$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	9,069$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	12c	8,052$944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$944.31	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	6,786$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.83	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	6,205$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.57	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	5,130$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.86	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	4,964$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.85	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	4,771$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.1	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	4,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	6c	3,935$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.45	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	3,607$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.8	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	15c	3,421$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	8c	2,992$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.26	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	2,558$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.74	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	2,500$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.74	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	2,415$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.94	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	5c	2,402$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.36	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,380$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	2c	2,333$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	2,305$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.35	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,150$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	12c	2,095$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.8	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	7c	2,067$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.59	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	11c	1,930$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.2	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	10c	1,890$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.99	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	1,867$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.54	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	13c	1,745$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.85	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	11c	1,743$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	7c	1,617$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.88	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	10c	1,557$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.25	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	3c	1,417$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	10c	1,401$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,375$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	12c	1,334$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.82	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	3c	1,314$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	14c	1,130$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02af…a5adbacked Yes	8c	1,114$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.11	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	13c	1,100$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4db…8ea1backed Yes	12c	1,083$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	6c	1,010$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.61	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0575…4c16backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66fe…c51abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa568…b810backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.7	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed Yes	2c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f7…9a6bbacked Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	6c	999.96$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	9c	999.88$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.88	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	975.61$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.42	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes	9c	973.92$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	850$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	9c	800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	800$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	789.11$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.85	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc603…9bdabacked Yes	6c	749.98$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	12c	742.68$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.79	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa28b…55fabacked Yes	14c	736.85$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x406c…ec46backed Yes	11c	714.29$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.81	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes	7c	700$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	91	16.5%15 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	5c	700$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	9c	681.71$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29f…b607backed Yes	7c	678.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	7c	647.5$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.89	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	12c	639.61$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.53	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	8c	630$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes	13c	628.73$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.73	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebad…f22bbacked Yes	11c	600$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	7c	600$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	2c	560.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	11c	550$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	10c	546.43$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.64	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a5…a594backed Yes	7c	530$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+112.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada0…44a4backed Yes	2c	525$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	18cpaid	+118.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc54…0531backed Yes	14c	506.42$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.9	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x31c0…20adbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	8c	499.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	8c	475.24$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.76	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db1…0627backed Yes	14c	475$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.61	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	468.81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes	7c	462$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13df…a764backed Yes	11c	451.69$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+135.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event