Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb87712a1029cd62e6f1622a6860047f9783744eca2c96cdfb184f89385dfa304

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $832,122
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $411,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $832,122 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	29,161$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$889.42	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	28,753$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.99	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82f8…7805backed Yes	0c	27,821$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.03	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-59%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	25,284$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	17,077$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.11	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	16,141$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.49	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…36aabacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	10,762$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	1c	10,328$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.34	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	8,527$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	1c	8,224$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.74	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	0c	7,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,885$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.09	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	6,287$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,124$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.51	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	6,112$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	5,747$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.72	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	0c	5,200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb91…3e18backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…ef95backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	6c	5,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.9	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,000$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	9c	4,995$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	4,950$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	4,653$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.76	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	4,548$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.32	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes	0c	4,215$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	4,214$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	5c	4,049$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,040$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.63	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	4,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	3,820$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.62	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	1c	3,565$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.66	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	3,545$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.82	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	10c	3,379$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	3,078$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.19	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	3c	3,025$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.78	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,010$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	3,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	3c	2,874$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	2,870$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	4c	2,540$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…adf9backed Yes	1c	2,284$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	2,216$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90a2…293bbacked Yes	3c	2,173$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,994$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	7c	1,869$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	3c	1,850$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,848$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	2c	1,459$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	1,334$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.13	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,308$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.8	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	6c	1,278$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.84	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes	4c	1,240$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.72	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	4c	1,215$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	7c	1,084$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.97	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe921…6a6dbacked Yes	4c	1,076$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.81	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.16per pick	4cpaid	+577.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	4c	1,069$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.99	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	5c	1,021$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	982.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5476…cd93backed Yes	2c	913.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+624.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc044…de04backed Yes	1c	908.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93d0…580ebacked Yes	6c	898.28$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f3…f151backed Yes	2c	836$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	2c	819.95$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes	3c	800$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	779.25$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	752.17$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes	4c	718.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	710.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	6c	697.37$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11cf…5bedbacked Yes	2c	675$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+4.1wins	+0.26per pick	31cpaid	+181.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	4c	656.57$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	2c	650$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…71e9backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad2e…6604backed Yes	3c	601.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	8c	575$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.58	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b83…950abacked Yes	2c	566.37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	5c	545.35$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	537.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d4…5933backed Yes	10c	510$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	148	18.2%27 W · 121 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b9a…05f1backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	460$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Yes	6c	412.58$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	398.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	5c	381.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	4c	366$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.87	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x389c…8005backed Yes	6c	353.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	109	25.7%28 W · 81 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e7…0029backed Yes	6c	353.18$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	5c	349.3$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7587…81e2backed Yes	6c	323.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	7c	296.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	7c	292$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	6c	284.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb3…d734backed Yes	7c	274.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	8c	257.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event