Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2057516c2263ef564bdc91781859f3d3e266a8dc19cbb81b3640d7d31fb2814

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $823,646
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $536,057

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $823,646 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	0c	33,833$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	20,990$1,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,372.98	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x946f…163bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	16,665$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,998$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,133$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	12c	10,293$1,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,210.69	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	9,024$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes	0c	8,193$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.29	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	0c	8,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d06…4e49backed Yes	1c	7,645$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	5,967$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.44	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	5,669$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	4,850$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	4,637$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	4,591$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.41	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,453$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.49	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	11c	4,411$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.87	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…24b5backed Yes	0c	4,042$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	9c	4,015$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.75	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	7c	3,948$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.67	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5099…9554backed Yes	0c	3,896$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	3,643$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.64	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…0d7abacked Yes	11c	3,561$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	3,407$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.38	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	3,200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	3,200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.04	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	16c	3,173$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	17c	3,025$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.72	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	3,000$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.64	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	2,991$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,836$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.63	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	2,809$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	12c	2,320$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.61	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	1c	2,226$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	1c	2,200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	16c	2,194$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef61…c705backed Yes	1c	2,193$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	9c	2,107$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd30a…25e9backed Yes	17c	2,080$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.34	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-92.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	2,024$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.93	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	11c	2,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes	1c	1,926$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.61	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	1,850$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.86	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	6c	1,823$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.34	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	7c	1,808$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.36	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,720$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	11c	1,643$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.83	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7587…81e2backed Yes	1c	1,560$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	1,536$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	14c	1,384$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.35	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	12c	1,366$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.88	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	15c	1,330$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4d…8ab0backed Yes	15c	1,293$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	2c	1,293$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0f…71fbbacked Yes	13c	1,273$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.65	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	3c	1,153$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.54	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	1,111$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.84	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	2c	1,080$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	7c	1,080$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.6	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	1,058$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.67	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fe…234bbacked Yes	15c	1,026$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa901…d418backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa568…b810backed Yes	16c	1,000$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.51	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes	10c	1,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f7…9a6bbacked Yes	14c	1,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	999.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0575…4c16backed Yes	14c	991.2$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.4	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	986.72$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	979.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	11c	914.89$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	11c	900$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13df…a764backed Yes	13c	891.6$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+135.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x745c…15fcbacked Yes	11c	888.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	3c	851.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.93	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes	12c	846.46$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	12c	800$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	13c	779.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	7c	720.53$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	15c	700.54$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.19	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc461…c951backed Yes	15c	686.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5db1…0627backed Yes	14c	675.2$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.95	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x406c…ec46backed Yes	13c	667.97$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.3	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	14c	653.94$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	10c	651.75$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.83	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	635.96$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	5c	599.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	14c	599.87$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.92	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	11c	573.76$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.56	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	5c	560$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	12c	555.01$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event