Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b61d50f88b421336d47712e100b402a164fe4a3c79566affeef52c4a0bcc47a

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $499,341
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $192,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $499,341 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	36,137$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,997$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	1c	14,214$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	11,621$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.31	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	11,184$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	10,246$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.08	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	0c	10,092$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.98	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	0c	8,807$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.64	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,739$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,118$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.89	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	6,084$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.75	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	2c	5,951$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.2	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	0c	5,747$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	1c	5,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	5,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	4,400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	4,333$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	3,915$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.29	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	3,671$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.77	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	3,541$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,296$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.47	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	1c	3,233$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	3,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,743$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…4c9ebacked Yes	0c	2,433$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,409$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	3c	2,314$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.15	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…adf9backed Yes	1c	2,047$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,006$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	94	26.6%25 W · 69 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,814$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.98	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,726$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.73	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	1c	1,643$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	3c	1,609$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.12	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	1c	1,485$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	1c	1,380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,313$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	1,150$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3a…5e0bbacked Yes	1c	1,048$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2265…52f1backed Yes	1c	1,013$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd30a…25e9backed Yes	2c	1,007$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.12	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-92.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	999.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	917.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	2c	836.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	2c	802.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe40c…074abacked Yes	2c	770.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5542…656cbacked Yes	2c	726$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	641.89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes	2c	637.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	627.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	575$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes	2c	545.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event