Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05a7cdac8a5ae01be6caa1251a4eb706b3592abfebd9dede947a3a3deb6e43bf

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $398,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $159,300

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1aab…773bbacked Yes	0c	33,804$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	0c	21,500$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	11,318$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.49	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	8,003$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	6,388$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.22	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	5,193$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	4,471$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.06	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	4,274$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.19	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	4,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	2,758$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.21	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	5c	2,725$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.49	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	7c	2,500$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.27	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	2,329$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.58	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	2,145$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes	10c	2,000$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	1,962$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.63	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,720$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.3	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc603…9bdabacked Yes	4c	1,684$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.16	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	12c	1,618$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.2	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	10c	1,420$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.58	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,415$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xada0…44a4backed Yes	1c	1,364$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	18cpaid	+118.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	3c	1,346$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	8c	1,300$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes	10c	1,300$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	14c	1,276$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.5	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	12c	1,204$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.81	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	12c	1,193$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…3d35backed Yes	4c	1,189$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.79	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,180$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.14	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	1,104$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.33	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	14c	1,048$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.76	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0575…4c16backed Yes	11c	1,006$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	3c	999.97$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	987.14$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…7f21backed Yes	3c	947.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.49	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	11c	893.75$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.06	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bd5…41f2backed Yes	5c	855$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	11cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb97a…5855backed Yes	6c	842.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+174.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4532…6041backed Yes	8c	815.45$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.54	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	3c	799.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	9c	799.98$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4db6…eb6cbacked Yes	9c	791.48$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	25cpaid	-90%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa29f…b607backed Yes	5c	751.95$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.99	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	750$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	11c	744.33$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.4	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	11c	736.11$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.95	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	12c	729.75$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.21	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	4c	727.94$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	14c	676.3$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.33	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba9f…2c25backed Yes	9c	667.58$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	666.71$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.43	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x406c…ec46backed Yes	10c	655.96$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.57	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	7c	638.37$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.25	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes	7c	603.93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	5c	599.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	5c	574.16$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f89…0170backed Yes	7c	543.83$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	3c	540.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	526.91$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	519.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	4c	511.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes	16c	500.36$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.14	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebad…f22bbacked Yes	9c	500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	8c	500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.62	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	13c	500$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e1b…1500backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	6c	496.59$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.01	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6496…8e19backed Yes	4c	485.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	17.4%31 W · 147 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe995…1e98backed Yes	12c	470.4$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.03	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	10c	424.52$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.11	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	5c	424$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	14c	418.85$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	3c	418.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c3d…7946backed Yes	7c	416.2$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes	10c	414.27$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8da4…131fbacked Yes	16c	411.28$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes	5c	398.58$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb941…3647backed Yes	14c	368.18$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	4c	360$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	5c	349.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd7…c4abbacked Yes	3c	344.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	12c	344.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	8c	340.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.83	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc758…773bbacked Yes	4c	335.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	333.68$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	319.86$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.38	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	5c	307.89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x006d…5cd7backed Yes	11c	307.18$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	14cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	11c	301.13$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	3c	300.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	300$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc1…3058backed Yes	14c	300$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	93	38.7%36 W · 57 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event