Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaada352dfc889cb4851da1b63adb741701cf3b96d5b0743503f163547fed0f29

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $348,101
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $185,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,101 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	61,369$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.37	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	12,448$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.9	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	11,273$1,129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,129.43	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	6,974$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.05	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	4,343$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.87	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,082$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.06	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,223$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.36	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,069$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	2c	2,922$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.3	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	4c	2,750$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.99	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	2,655$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.95	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,629$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,108$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.93	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	3c	2,043$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	5c	1,923$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,731$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,500$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	6c	1,265$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.09	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	1,243$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,038$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	999.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.81	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	2c	937.7$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	3c	901.79$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	11c	823.41$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.76	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	2c	822.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	10c	800$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.4	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a16…2243backed Yes	13c	742.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.14	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	-84.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes	3c	693.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	4c	673.9$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.13	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	656.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	4c	612.43$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.97	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes	4c	600$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.47	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+57%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb941…3647backed Yes	9c	564.75$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x006d…5cd7backed Yes	5c	558.46$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	14cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9669…4b99backed Yes	4c	541.29$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	535.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.86	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	11c	502.56$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.37	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51e3…24ffbacked Yes	5c	500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes	4c	482.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8147…294cbacked Yes	5c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x970b…bcbcbacked Yes	3c	363.9$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	7c	347.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c87…eb0dbacked Yes	6c	310.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes	5c	303.47$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.86	470	32.6%153 W · 317 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	301.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	6c	298.07$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e1b…91cbbacked Yes	5c	291.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.49	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	4c	243.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	5c	230.58$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x407d…24bcbacked Yes	6c	201.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c02…53c6backed Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	7c	199.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes	10c	198.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc819…8c33backed Yes	8c	188.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes	10c	183.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.66	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8e2…3146backed Yes	11c	177.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	30%12 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	171.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bb…2865backed Yes	13c	155.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea7…4dabbacked Yes	14c	137.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	10c	110.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b73…01e3backed Yes	11c	92.7$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	91	19.8%18 W · 73 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+38%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes	13c	84.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event