Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449927dbd6e608a03327c2eb0816f869eae522a902651ac7e0a333eea1dcfa24

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $901,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $634,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $901,898 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	0c	82,324$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	50,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	23,108$1,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,258.56	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x946f…163bbacked Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,998$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70ba…2465backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5b6b…2bbcbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	8,650$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	7,431$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.4	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	0c	6,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	6,655$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.55	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes	1c	6,609$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.87	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	6,052$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.43	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	6,000$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.62	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	5,347$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,210$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	14c	5,050$692 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$692.11	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,858$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.15	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	0c	4,667$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa869…28f5backed Yes	1c	4,596$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	0c	4,356$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	4,268$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.09	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	6c	3,919$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.79	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	3,778$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.74	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	1c	3,741$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.27	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,467$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.49	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	3,331$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.73	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	13c	3,325$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.47	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	0c	3,220$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,073$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d5…bb27backed Yes	16c	3,036$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	1c	3,015$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	2c	2,943$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.57	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa64f…7121backed Yes	1c	2,751$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	14c	2,635$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.79	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	2,600$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	2,590$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.48	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,561$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.29	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	2c	2,413$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7657backed Yes	1c	2,312$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	39cpaid	+82.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	2,200$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.22	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5099…9554backed Yes	1c	2,074$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	2,045$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.28	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9110…63febacked Yes	1c	2,034$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	1,948$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.24	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	1,891$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8826…3c1ebacked Yes	16c	1,880$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes	2c	1,864$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	11c	1,807$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c3…dda9backed Yes	1c	1,779$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	2c	1,745$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	1,701$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.05	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes	18c	1,679$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.42	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	8c	1,609$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.63	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95d2…1ecabacked Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+166.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,475$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4db…8ea1backed Yes	14c	1,429$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	11c	1,400$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	8c	1,380$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.64	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	1,335$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.45	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	3c	1,313$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.47	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7398…12f1backed Yes	5c	1,274$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,125$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.76	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	5c	1,111$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.96	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	2c	1,094$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,078$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	2c	1,076$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa28b…55fabacked Yes	5c	1,075$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes	9c	1,071$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	16c	1,049$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.7	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8b4d…8ab0backed Yes	20c	1,017$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ac…dbf4backed Yes	2c	1,016$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa568…b810backed Yes	18c	1,000$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.73	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f7…9a6bbacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9de…5fb1backed Yes	2c	999.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	13c	999.77$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.83	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	10c	969.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.41	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	15c	968$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.88	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	904.51$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.14	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	4c	900$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	3c	900$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.36	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…a5a3backed Yes	12c	900$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	5c	899.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	3c	845.33$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745c…15fcbacked Yes	12c	826.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes	13c	819.74$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.01	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	13c	800$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	6c	798.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	12c	773.38$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc54…0531backed Yes	9c	738.08$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.36	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	734.59$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.16	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb41c…2f0dbacked Yes	14c	732.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.21per pick	33cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	5c	700$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event