Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b70f381e3f87b2b12f9b36e46da99b35d5db03388beaa55469b8cb26717391

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $308,867
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $97,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,867 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	0c	21,810$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.19	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	10,077$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.52	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	7,271$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	11c	6,467$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.5	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	5,661$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	5,075$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.85	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	5,013$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.98	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	4,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,186$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	3,183$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.73	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	13c	3,109$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.3	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	4c	2,500$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.87	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,378$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.64	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	9c	2,130$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc603…9bdabacked Yes	2c	2,096$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.06	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,992$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.61	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,877$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.42	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…9054backed Yes	4c	1,633$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.61	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa29f…b607backed Yes	3c	1,594$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	12c	1,584$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.57	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40c…19fdbacked Yes	9c	1,487$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.86	50	24%12 W · 38 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	14c	1,461$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	7c	1,295$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.57	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	1,292$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.03	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	2c	1,280$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd5…41f2backed Yes	2c	1,272$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.17per pick	11cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	1,271$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.47	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x988f…5c5cbacked Yes	10c	1,237$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.56	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb941…3647backed Yes	12c	1,234$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	5c	1,210$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.94	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	13c	1,189$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,122$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	1,100$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.44	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	4c	1,068$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.18	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,054$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.74	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	2c	1,054$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0575…4c16backed Yes	10c	1,008$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	2c	999.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	999.96$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	980$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1c3d…7946backed Yes	3c	890.06$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	836.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	4c	813.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	3c	799.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc999…ca09backed Yes	2c	777.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes	4c	773$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…7f21backed Yes	2c	754.68$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…146dbacked Yes	15c	700$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.7	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fd…59a9backed Yes	14c	634.65$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.82	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9691…1868backed Yes	3c	626.76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	4c	615.41$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	600$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.55	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	12c	599.98$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.4	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x406c…ec46backed Yes	7c	599.67$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdd…f1c7backed Yes	2c	589.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+209.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	560.51$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf84f…c8f1backed Yes	3c	547.28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	2c	544.03$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	526.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes	2c	507.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes	16c	500.26$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.77	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebad…f22bbacked Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.7	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	7c	500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x006d…5cd7backed Yes	7c	482.68$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	14cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	482.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	461.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	14c	445.8$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a8f…046abacked Yes	12c	430.51$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	12c	430.45$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	423.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	15c	413.24$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.75	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	11c	400$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.28	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	399.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaee…999abacked Yes	3c	375.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	3c	360$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd3…cf4abacked Yes	10c	358.43$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb928…db56backed Yes	10c	357.26$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.8	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…7edabacked Yes	4c	350$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes	3c	345.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	12c	342.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.66	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	9c	340.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	4c	330.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	8c	309.28$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.58	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	7c	307.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb8…1ca6backed Yes	8c	303.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	10c	287.63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a16…2243backed Yes	15c	280.97$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	-84.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe2f…cb31backed Yes	9c	269.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes	5c	264$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcea7…4dabbacked Yes	8c	263.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	4c	263.23$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes	12c	235$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ea…ef4fbacked Yes	9c	232.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	74	16.2%12 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed Yes	13c	226.09$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c7…224ebacked Yes	9c	208.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event