Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633e17ced7692c48d79f15fd3dfb182b3cbd06895d70d4b6d641c558160b77ce

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $732,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $261,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $732,117 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	36,430$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	35,328$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	24,673$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.43	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	17,043$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	15,279$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.11	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,072$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.3	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	13,425$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993d…5a1dbacked Yes	0c	12,891$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	0c	9,350$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	8,305$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.94	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	0c	8,263$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.58	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	2c	7,945$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.82	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	7,892$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	7,704$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.23	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	0c	5,297$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	5,069$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.26	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	5,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	4,541$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.27	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	1c	4,476$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.24	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	0c	4,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	4,069$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9051…7423backed Yes	1c	3,877$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	3,712$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	1c	2,660$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	2,501$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.01	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	2c	2,081$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.72	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes	1c	2,001$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	58	5.2%3 W · 55 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,988$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28aa…413abacked Yes	1c	1,877$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.88	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	1c	1,777$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,707$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,497$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	1,424$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	1c	1,360$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	3c	1,296$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.68	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd292…d03abacked Yes	1c	1,151$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	8cpaid	+224.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b9a…05f1backed Yes	1c	1,105$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	1,048$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.97	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d5…2592backed Yes	2c	1,044$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f8…9f7ebacked Yes	2c	1,009$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	999.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7369…5f41backed Yes	1c	843.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	820$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7144backed Yes	1c	789.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes	3c	379.1$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	4c	251.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event