Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f25449e1d10ac6139f395358479939300f7d355b15d4ec1e26ea5005b175bb3

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,074,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $694,474

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,074,288 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 584 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	33,880$2,155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,154.9	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	1c	21,664$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.96	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,553$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	18,181$2,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,811.37	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	18,097$2,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,290.59	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	12c	16,248$2,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,010.57	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	12c	12,306$1,475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,475.25	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	12,256$1,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,531.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	11,507$2,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,111.09	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes	17c	11,482$1,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,930	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	10,147$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.85	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	10,022$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	9,891$1,383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,383.29	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	10c	9,750$978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$977.9	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	2c	9,181$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.89	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	9,065$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.83	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	12c	8,847$1,056 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.91	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	17c	8,183$1,391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,390.99	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	15c	7,902$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,158.78	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	9c	7,141$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.77	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes	17c	7,098$1,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,190.25	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-4.7wins	-0.26per pick	32cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	16c	6,729$1,086 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,085.88	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	20c	6,348$1,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,298.55	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	16c	5,993$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.41	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	5,717$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.68	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	5,664$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.13	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	15c	5,274$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.72	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	16c	4,853$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.38	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	3c	4,833$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.5	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	5c	4,807$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.3	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	14c	4,567$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.73	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	20c	4,046$810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.6	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	17c	4,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.99	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes	19c	3,984$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.82	142	19.7%28 W · 114 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-46%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	7c	3,966$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.77	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	20c	3,939$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.72	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	3,922$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.03	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	16c	3,790$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.62	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	13c	3,594$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.93	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	10c	3,458$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.89	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	3,410$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.85	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	24c	3,300$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$807.45	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	15c	3,238$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.5	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	3,237$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	4c	3,216$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.74	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	5c	3,201$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.8	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes	17c	3,168$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.13	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	11c	3,003$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	79c	2,815$2,232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$583.28	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	11c	2,775$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.93	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	17c	2,695$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.36	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	15c	2,615$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.02	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	8c	2,450$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.76	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	8c	2,443$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.98	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	16c	2,423$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.02	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	2,394$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.67	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,381$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	21c	2,276$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.78	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1947…02b4backed Yes	22c	2,263$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	2,247$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.18	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	9c	2,225$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.09	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	15c	2,118$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.38	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	15c	2,115$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.54	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	4c	2,080$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.04	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	2,035$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	5c	2,002$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.24	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	17c	1,888$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.48	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	15c	1,800$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.8	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes	18c	1,774$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.25	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	25c	1,740$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.12	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes	8c	1,717$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.63	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	26cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe935…778dbacked Yes	19c	1,690$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.34	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x769d…05bfbacked Yes	23c	1,663$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.65	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	16c	1,648$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	19c	1,619$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	19c	1,556$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.21	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62f…990bbacked Yes	10c	1,546$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.65	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-63%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	14c	1,500$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.08	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb15f…7951backed Yes	7c	1,500$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No	77c	1,451$1,113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.17	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	19c	1,450$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.44	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	21c	1,360$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.41	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	1,330$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.49	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	17c	1,322$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	15c	1,307$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.11	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	15c	1,296$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes	2c	1,235$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.66	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	8c	1,200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.8	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes	15c	1,199$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.96	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+41%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	17c	1,152$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.55	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	7c	1,150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.13	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	15c	1,138$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.42	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	20c	1,133$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	9c	1,127$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1acd…c664backed Yes	27c	1,123$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-88.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	20c	1,116$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.11	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes	2c	1,080$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.68	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes	9c	1,065$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	5c	1,058$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.26	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event