AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93eee417885cf04077f2544904316369af2a1120ad0d79ba22ed7c5c1eed5bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,472 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2103…e296backed Yes | 26c | 1,639$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 1,466$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 4c | 806.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 74c | 683$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 74c | 672$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked No | 73c | 664$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 27c | 489$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.97 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 73c | 378$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed No | 74c | 284$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 27c | 227$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 27c | 227$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed Yes | 27c | 210$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 63c | 151.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 73c | 111$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 93.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…9b53backed No | 71c | 93.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…daaebacked Yes | 42c | 92.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb2…58c1backed Yes | 42c | 44.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 65c | 24.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…4997backed Yes | 58c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.