AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3193514b02846ae4baf8aaabf8cc293bfbf0cb882df226292d9c8e4a19f74c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,313 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 17c | 1,487$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.21 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed Yes | 11c | 846$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 11c | 529$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Yes | 41c | 115$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…f300backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 56c | 95.07$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…7bb6backed No | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…d093backed Yes | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…7475backed No | 50c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…dfb3backed Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 58c | 21.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +103%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 25?this page
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 27?Yes won
- Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.