TailMyPicks
Market

Lol · resolved market

LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof KT Rolster, Gen.G
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$864,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,073,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $864,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 512 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc75a…1ab2backed KT Rolster1c41,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2107889.8%77 W · 711 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked KT Rolster6c36,875$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,342.31,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed KT Rolster0c30,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202072.9%6 W · 201 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed KT Rolster35c26,484$9,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,269.3453750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed KT Rolster3c25,208$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.1915429.9%46 W · 108 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+81.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Gen.G65c25,000$16,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,75064455.6%358 W · 286 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Gen.G66c22,720$14,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,724.6596948.6%471 W · 498 L+12.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac3…66d8backed Gen.G67c16,902$11,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,577.787153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed KT Rolster35c15,000$5,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,25032650.3%164 W · 162 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked KT Rolster33c15,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9610535.2%37 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked KT Rolster32c14,000$4,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,481.956636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed KT Rolster11c12,713$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.4225946.7%121 W · 138 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed KT Rolster10c11,128$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.981,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed KT Rolster20c10,025$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.4751748.2%249 W · 268 L+26.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked KT Rolster34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40031328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked KT Rolster33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30026344.5%117 W · 146 L+18.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed Gen.G67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3009955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Gen.G66c10,000$6,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4501,20354%650 W · 553 L+28.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked KT Rolster35c10,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.9830044%132 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fb5…acb3backed KT Rolster31c9,687$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9981136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85b8…0935backed Gen.G71c9,414$6,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,768.853828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked KT Rolster34c9,108$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,095.681,26737.7%478 W · 789 L+35.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Gen.G67c8,470$5,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.2632955.6%183 W · 146 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x958b…50cebacked KT Rolster6c8,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.695034%17 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked KT Rolster21c7,976$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70030854.5%168 W · 140 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b1…a837backed Gen.G65c7,820$5,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,723.81428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Gen.G66c7,746$5,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,633.6338148%183 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Gen.G68c7,494$5,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,380.691,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed KT Rolster31c7,413$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.6448449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf032…895dbacked KT Rolster31c7,000$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14022059.5%131 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked KT Rolster9c6,842$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.7810541.9%44 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Gen.G77c6,466$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,455.569259.7%413 W · 279 L+75.8wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Gen.G68c6,200$4,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,980.6128959.2%171 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G65c5,140$3,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,809.111,15849.2%570 W · 588 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed KT Rolster35c5,002$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.6830843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked KT Rolster32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60054555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Gen.G65c4,769$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.2326849.3%132 W · 136 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed KT Rolster33c4,621$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54618433.7%62 W · 122 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Gen.G65c4,565$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.7520346.3%94 W · 109 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed KT Rolster35c4,444$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.451044.1%225 W · 285 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Gen.G65c4,366$2,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,528.11,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed KT Rolster3c4,056$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.838624.4%94 W · 292 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed KT Rolster18c4,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72090443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed KT Rolster35c4,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.9858457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Gen.G67c3,980$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.446257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed KT Rolster34c3,976$1,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.021,52550.6%771 W · 754 L+3.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed KT Rolster26c3,900$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00029748.1%143 W · 154 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked KT Rolster35c3,714$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30029843.3%129 W · 169 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed KT Rolster17c3,664$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.341227.4%113 W · 299 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed KT Rolster1c3,523$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.831,60817.5%282 W · 1,326 L-245.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed KT Rolster32c3,360$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.8247933.2%159 W · 320 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc564…e89dbacked Gen.G67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99027745.8%127 W · 150 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Gen.G70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90084450.1%423 W · 421 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Gen.G65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.991,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc6f…6c5cbacked KT Rolster34c2,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015443.5%67 W · 87 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ffc…3dd9backed KT Rolster33c2,778$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.773318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Gen.G72c2,491$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.8385942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed KT Rolster12c2,432$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.781,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Gen.G65c2,400$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84064553.3%344 W · 301 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Gen.G66c2,300$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7841,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2141…6b5ebacked KT Rolster1c2,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.212334.1%42 W · 81 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Gen.G71c2,187$1,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.3676642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked KT Rolster12c2,096$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.481,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked KT Rolster2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4029236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Gen.G67c2,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601,32753.3%707 W · 620 L+37.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Gen.G66c1,930$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.1328448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Gen.G65c1,894$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.91,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed KT Rolster33c1,860$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.819342%81 W · 112 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed KT Rolster34c1,820$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.797048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…3f90backed KT Rolster35c1,627$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.27643.4%33 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5de…cabebacked KT Rolster33c1,596$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.5819336.3%70 W · 123 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f6a…599abacked KT Rolster1c1,577$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.145949.2%29 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked Gen.G80c1,562$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8233058.5%193 W · 137 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed KT Rolster2c1,517$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2556432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked KT Rolster21c1,512$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3966845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed Gen.G64c1,500$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5406643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Gen.G67c1,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50090350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5f…85d5backed Gen.G63c1,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5555154.9%28 W · 23 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed KT Rolster16c1,500$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9994237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed KT Rolster34c1,400$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47626729.2%78 W · 189 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb46…ed08backed KT Rolster22c1,400$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30832736.7%120 W · 207 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d5a…c59ebacked KT Rolster11c1,350$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.514818.9%28 W · 120 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…b3a6backed KT Rolster38c1,316$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006134.4%21 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Gen.G65c1,300$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4551,22348.6%594 W · 629 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d6…3e1ebacked KT Rolster4c1,300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525020%10 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a8a…9dfcbacked KT Rolster34c1,300$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.996732.8%22 W · 45 L-7.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed KT Rolster34c1,294$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.0311367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Gen.G70c1,255$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.3195541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabc1…9561backed Gen.G70c1,247$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.158061.3%49 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fa…907fbacked KT Rolster14c1,222$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.610521.9%23 W · 82 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+60.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x581a…e40dbacked Gen.G65c1,213$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.397354.8%40 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed KT Rolster33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40061154.7%334 W · 277 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad43…1a69backed KT Rolster7c1,205$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed KT Rolster33c1,200$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39632045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x257a…b42abacked Gen.G68c1,178$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.9218356.8%104 W · 79 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Gen.G78c1,156$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0652365%340 W · 183 L-16.3wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Gen.G72c1,124$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.471,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Gen.G65c1,077$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.9271157%405 W · 306 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Gen.G67c1,017$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.5321352.6%112 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked KT Rolster19c1,010$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8968915.2%105 W · 584 L-31.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.