TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of Dplus KIA, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,399,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,653,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,399,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 772 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf751…fec8backed Dplus KIA50c123,115$62,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,152.321741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Dplus KIA51c73,632$37,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,809.2253750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe291…748ebacked Dplus KIA35c57,017$19,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,968.410456.7%59 W · 45 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed T150c39,840$19,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,118.574450%22 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed T152c38,675$20,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,563.991,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked T151c31,913$16,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,568.196048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed T153c24,477$13,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,405.651,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Dplus KIA54c22,213$12,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,046.7948149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b1…d224backed T169c21,477$14,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,586.4640651.7%210 W · 196 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed T160c21,209$12,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,424.8611367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked T158c20,175$11,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,423.325244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T151c17,558$8,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,603.4251146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed T161c17,500$10,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,829.1922355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdc…4281backed T150c16,400$8,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,2003857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed T148c15,444$7,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,093.0932150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Dplus KIA47c15,240$7,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,132.791,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Dplus KIA42c14,437$6,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,020.4269741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe100…4d41backed T154c14,045$7,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,431.3113251.5%68 W · 64 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Dplus KIA1c14,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1707869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed T145c13,942$6,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,667.9633856.2%190 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed T152c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,760.0220748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed T156c11,723$6,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,115.929955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Dplus KIA50c10,801$5,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400.621,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18f0…3d5ebacked T149c10,569$5,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400.9311138.7%43 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed T152c10,453$5,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,992.7723445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked T162c10,025$6,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,812.7557246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed Dplus KIA1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked T156c10,000$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,414.4853255.1%293 W · 239 L+23.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Dplus KIA56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.8929443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed T149c9,818$4,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,007.1837948.3%183 W · 196 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Dplus KIA39c9,666$3,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,790.882657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed T146c9,391$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,082.591,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb4…87b5backed T160c9,247$5,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,685.84151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bc…46cebacked Dplus KIA39c9,149$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,598.036636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ed…085abacked T162c9,000$5,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,42010541.9%44 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed T151c9,000$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.9918971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd1…42d2backed T172c8,943$6,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,464.136243.5%27 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Dplus KIA49c8,674$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,250.2429945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked T150c8,274$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.348844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9973…bd7fbacked T167c7,900$5,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.2917953.1%95 W · 84 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked T161c7,413$4,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.5325944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed T161c7,355$4,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.946257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124e…1c58backed T162c7,128$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.7416954.4%92 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab61…fb2bbacked T171c7,032$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.823545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked T151c6,888$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.521,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5286…0d47backed Dplus KIA50c6,765$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40027637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Dplus KIA49c6,577$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.5319748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x847f…459ebacked T146c6,332$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,419.142236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed T149c6,248$3,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,184.4821347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed T167c5,600$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.0914360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7e2…9e36backed T145c5,502$2,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,026.062958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Dplus KIA57c5,472$3,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.871,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed T160c5,397$3,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.8334137.8%129 W · 212 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d71…a961backed T150c5,127$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,564.992420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…a26ebacked T166c5,049$3,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.235644.6%25 W · 31 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed T151c5,037$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.271,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed T150c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5004944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Dplus KIA52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.9964155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked T144c4,990$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.489435.1%33 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…398abacked T159c4,948$2,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+303.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Dplus KIA41c4,744$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.2745148.1%217 W · 234 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed T152c4,738$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.4613947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed T164c4,687$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.551348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked T166c4,559$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.2521968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Dplus KIA1c4,387$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.07166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-91.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked T164c4,355$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.526155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Dplus KIA48c4,200$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0161,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed T165c4,137$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.3528859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed T164c4,127$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.661,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f3…8dd9backed T152c4,109$2,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.333743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed T151c4,067$2,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,992.8385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Dplus KIA39c4,005$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9583460.8%507 W · 327 L+44.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed T152c4,004$2,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.0364247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Dplus KIA50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked T162c3,996$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.2526551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed T146c3,996$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.611,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Dplus KIA49c3,858$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.4119041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Dplus KIA50c3,803$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.9927346.9%128 W · 145 L-14.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed T161c3,774$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.1957957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc72…c9d0backed T144c3,756$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.471650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed T166c3,722$2,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.562158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Dplus KIA49c3,705$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,812.9536155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Dplus KIA44c3,700$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6352,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked T144c3,684$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.2226549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Dplus KIA34c3,536$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.571,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed T146c3,438$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.151,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25d5…11fcbacked T172c3,346$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.849951.5%51 W · 48 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed T149c3,293$1,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.592,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed T151c3,200$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.9847838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9f…7d7fbacked Dplus KIA35c3,129$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.429535.8%34 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…b70cbacked Dplus KIA43c3,114$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.2614641.8%61 W · 85 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9c…f546backed T165c3,086$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.833066.7%20 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked Dplus KIA57c3,078$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.7315644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a93…8e36backed T165c3,077$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.9210365%67 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Dplus KIA42c3,005$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.7629236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Dplus KIA50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Dplus KIA50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50085442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked Dplus KIA1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30660%0 W · 66 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed Dplus KIA35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0501,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed Dplus KIA48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4409345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.