TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
T1of Dplus KIA, T1
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$682,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$820,850

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $682,650 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Dplus KIA18c36,629$6,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,558.431,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Dplus KIA48c31,480$15,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,037.2153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62ad…5b28backed Dplus KIA3c24,809$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.511118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+370.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked T153c17,000$8,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,049.9925244.4%112 W · 140 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed T161c16,483$10,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,446.1981143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Dplus KIA48c15,000$7,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,249.9929443.2%127 W · 167 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed T152c13,489$7,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,409.739955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Dplus KIA1c12,118$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.787869.8%77 W · 709 L+22.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Dplus KIA2c11,261$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1815429.9%46 W · 108 L+15.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+81.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Dplus KIA20c10,500$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.9832234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Dplus KIA49c10,106$4,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,909.6746050.7%233 W · 227 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb727…2a9dbacked T152c10,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,799.955250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Dplus KIA2c9,091$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.811,09834.8%382 W · 716 L-17.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Dplus KIA46c8,315$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,83329945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed T153c8,037$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,777.6111367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Dplus KIA47c8,000$3,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.9857957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a23…3253backed Dplus KIA46c7,460$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,431.4310557.1%60 W · 45 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a86…4998backed Dplus KIA7c7,068$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018330.1%55 W · 128 L-0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9671…3a70backed Dplus KIA1c7,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702844.6%13 W · 271 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked T152c6,729$3,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,230.031,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Dplus KIA2c6,320$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.489347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Dplus KIA47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8201,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked T153c5,849$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.0626549.1%130 W · 135 L+21.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed T152c5,844$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.318971.4%135 W · 54 L+11.1wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Dplus KIA48c5,149$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.5112642.9%54 W · 72 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Dplus KIA49c5,096$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50021056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bb4…87b5backed T152c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4004151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Dplus KIA48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked T174c4,906$3,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,292.121,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed T152c4,786$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.2712226.2%32 W · 90 L-11.8wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x06c0…e618backed Dplus KIA47c4,683$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20127957.7%161 W · 118 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Dplus KIA37c4,675$1,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.752,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed T152c4,470$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.68334.9%29 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Dplus KIA20c4,449$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90026551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Dplus KIA48c4,444$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.121,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Dplus KIA7c4,356$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed T154c4,221$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.659345.2%42 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Dplus KIA48c4,200$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0161,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Dplus KIA7c4,178$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0363344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked T169c4,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2401,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac7…8a43backed Dplus KIA17c3,736$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.8518132.6%59 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x141a…d05abacked T154c3,670$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.3621968%149 W · 70 L+28.8wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+38.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Dplus KIA8c3,666$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.961,04450.4%526 W · 518 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed T159c3,333$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.4562158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed T154c3,317$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.7619748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed T175c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75085442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Dplus KIA48c3,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed T162c2,998$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.5458259.5%346 W · 236 L+27.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b8…0935backed Dplus KIA38c2,760$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0403828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x856c…0d63backed T153c2,747$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5f…fbf4backed Dplus KIA5c2,716$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.169711.3%11 W · 86 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x194a…f98abacked Dplus KIA5c2,681$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.31855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2d0…1a68backed Dplus KIA3c2,600$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827826.9%21 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed T151c2,572$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,260.071,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Dplus KIA2c2,553$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3965359.4%388 W · 265 L+70.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed T152c2,506$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.7960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked Dplus KIA47c2,500$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.991,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed T156c2,387$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.4122355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe42c…e2c5backed Dplus KIA42c2,381$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-49.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4967…4292backed Dplus KIA7c2,370$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16530231.1%94 W · 208 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed T170c2,294$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.348149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Dplus KIA29c2,105$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.832,92344.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L-91.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Dplus KIA47c2,096$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.1285836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Dplus KIA37c2,063$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.523,11933.7%1,052 W · 2,067 L-151.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd621…b9efbacked Dplus KIA11c2,058$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9925241.3%104 W · 148 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ce8…3cd9backed Dplus KIA48c2,034$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked T150c2,033$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.1748844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked T152c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9601,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed T152c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96016058.8%94 W · 66 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Dplus KIA4c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9031328.8%90 W · 223 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Dplus KIA29c2,000$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58614753.1%78 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5f…85d5backed T153c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9404654.3%25 W · 21 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Dplus KIA6c2,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13029236%105 W · 187 L-0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed T158c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.0846257.8%267 W · 195 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7986…baa5backed T151c1,979$1,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.7721347.9%102 W · 111 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked T153c1,887$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.7926155.9%146 W · 115 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Dplus KIA46c1,870$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.23542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked T154c1,847$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.6221948.4%106 W · 113 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed T154c1,842$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.7828847.9%138 W · 150 L-9.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked T166c1,840$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.671,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked T158c1,839$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.821,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b1f…d6d5backed T155c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.181266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed T154c1,761$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.5216162.1%100 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…cba2backed T151c1,753$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.976342.9%27 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dplus KIA47c1,701$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.669341.9%39 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked T159c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.921,66059.5%987 W · 673 L+97.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked T152c1,634$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.1551852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Dplus KIA2c1,600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04c9…f1fabacked Dplus KIA33c1,588$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.4712132.2%39 W · 82 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Dplus KIA48c1,566$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.861,79251.1%916 W · 876 L+50.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed T152c1,500$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.9946263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Dplus KIA13c1,500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Dplus KIA44c1,447$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.0469741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b7…c49bbacked Dplus KIA14c1,441$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016253.7%87 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed T151c1,378$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67551146.8%239 W · 272 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfae5…0ddcbacked Dplus KIA7c1,348$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4112324.4%30 W · 93 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39da…f67fbacked Dplus KIA1c1,309$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81666.1%4 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Dplus KIA20c1,300$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25641343.6%180 W · 233 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Dplus KIA7c1,290$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011339.8%45 W · 68 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Dplus KIA6c1,288$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.291,60517.5%281 W · 1,324 L-244.2wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.