Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c37b89407aac9e4fea0ea9bc003cdda75cb5d3c3ccc9b523f4a6ec2b0c81f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $627,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 98,415$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.39 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 23c | 32,987$7,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,477.68 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,901$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 41c | 10,754$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.36 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed Yes | 38c | 10,543$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000.59 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 14c | 10,504$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.02 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 8c | 9,251$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.55 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 12c | 8,688$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.08 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 1c | 7,975$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 17c | 7,780$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.71 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 2c | 7,555$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 237 | 35.4%84 W · 153 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,382$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.27 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 29c | 6,246$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.75 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 10c | 5,872$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.6 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 5,244$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 4,620$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.81 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 0c | 4,510$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…9ae7backed Yes | 1c | 4,344$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 51c | 4,173$2,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.94 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 2c | 4,171$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 48c | 3,692$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.31 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,620$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.19 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 37c | 3,602$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 31c | 3,213$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.67 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 3,150$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.9 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,085$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 15c | 3,077$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.41 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 62c | 2,960$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.76 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,866$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…cac3backed No | 52c | 2,859$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.85 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,732$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 13c | 2,713$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.93 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1730…4fd4backed Yes | 55c | 2,577$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa0…3308backed Yes | 7c | 2,300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,138$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.73 | 599 | 27%162 W · 437 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,951$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 34c | 1,800$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.49 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 1c | 1,761$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,718$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,692$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,667$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.08 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…018dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,648$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,609$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.69 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 42c | 1,565$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.03 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked No | 54c | 1,545$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.31 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed No | 76c | 1,475$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.88 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 43c | 1,450$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.44 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…0b32backed No | 45c | 1,336$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,306$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 44c | 1,300$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…3cb2backed No | 48c | 1,274$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.86 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,240$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 65c | 1,226$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.89 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed No | 52c | 1,187$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.69 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 1,137$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.04 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…71a0backed No | 72c | 1,108$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 49c | 1,085$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.58 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 21c | 1,050$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 59c | 1,021$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,020$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed No | 66c | 974.61$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.37 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 2c | 963.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…37babacked No | 73c | 951.85$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.95 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 1c | 897.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes | 67c | 895.52$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed No | 67c | 868.56$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.62 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 19c | 829.78$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.05 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 47c | 825$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.8 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Yes | 27c | 820.95$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.33 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 52c | 792.06$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 781.88$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.08 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…c3c0backed No | 48c | 762.36$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.87 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 30c | 757.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.69 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked Yes | 2c | 660.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb7…7331backed Yes | 52c | 640.71$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.82 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 12c | 591.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…8649backed Yes | 40c | 551.39$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 52c | 550$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 528.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 39c | 500$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 44c | 498.22$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.64 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 54c | 489.8$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.99 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.