TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$627,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$529,167

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $627,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 360 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c98,415$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.391,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes23c32,987$7,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,477.6863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes0c12,901$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.156526.2%17 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes41c10,754$4,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.3618618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes38c10,543$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.597613.2%10 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes14c10,504$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,428.0224115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes8c9,251$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.5510610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes12c8,688$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.0822718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes1c7,975$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4224815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes17c7,780$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.7110818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes2c7,555$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15823735.4%84 W · 153 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes2c7,382$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.272259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes29c6,246$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.7511556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes1c6,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9618123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes10c5,872$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.61,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c5,244$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4756817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes16c4,620$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.8159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes0c4,510$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7213713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…9ae7backed Yes1c4,344$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes51c4,173$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,140.9417919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes2c4,171$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9215017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc6…2b42backed No48c3,692$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.314770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes10c3,620$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.199711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes37c3,602$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35046521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes31c3,213$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.6787618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes12c3,150$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes1c3,085$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7510431.7%33 W · 71 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+125.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes15c3,077$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.417825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes1c3,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No62c2,960$1,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.7654274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c2,866$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.051,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed No52c2,859$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.854531.1%14 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked Yes1c2,732$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1615164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes13c2,713$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9318722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1730…4fd4backed Yes55c2,577$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa0…3308backed Yes7c2,300$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes34c2,138$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.7359927%162 W · 437 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,951$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes34c1,800$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.4931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes1c1,761$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes1c1,718$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159626%25 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460c…d25fbacked Yes53c1,692$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes9c1,667$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0832716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x799e…018dbacked Yes1c1,648$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes6c1,609$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.229116.5%15 W · 76 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes18c1,600$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.691,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes2c1,600$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247820.5%16 W · 62 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No42c1,565$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.0312429.8%37 W · 87 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No54c1,545$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.3120735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes2c1,500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4711421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c1,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c1,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed No76c1,475$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.8821242.5%90 W · 122 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes43c1,450$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.4419726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…0b32backed No45c1,336$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+81.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes5c1,306$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-59.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes44c1,300$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57019317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf594…3cb2backed No48c1,274$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.864070%28 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c1,240$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610817.6%19 W · 89 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No65c1,226$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.8920924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed No52c1,187$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.697035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes23c1,137$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0429225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed No72c1,108$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.71747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes1c1,100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No49c1,085$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.5856329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes21c1,050$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.834215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x435a…c529backed Yes59c1,021$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.651637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes41c1,020$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42013318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21046137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed No66c974.61$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.378337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes2c963.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20885.7%5 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a0f…37babacked No73c951.85$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.956535.4%23 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes1c897.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2312216.4%20 W · 102 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes67c895.52$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed No67c868.56$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.6212117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes19c829.78$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0515819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes47c825$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.812514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Yes27c820.95$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.332737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bf…3658backed Yes52c792.06$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4104420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No60c781.88$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.0831565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x111b…c3c0backed No48c762.36$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.874768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes30c757.13$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6923321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa511…010bbacked Yes2c660.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes52c640.71$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.823426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes52c600$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3128742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes12c591.05$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7329227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd41b…8649backed Yes40c551.39$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2232528%7 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes52c550$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2861457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c528.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8287917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11015649.4%77 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes39c500$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.516747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1458622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3536018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022142.5%94 W · 127 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1758923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked No44c498.22$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.6418631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No54c489.8$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9923464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.