TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$688,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$789,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $688,386 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 532 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes79c24,070$18,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,162.2866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No58c10,042$5,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,870.956457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes60c9,206$5,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.4657222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes30c7,884$2,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,495.3320735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed No46c7,472$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,420.433267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No0c7,072$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes39c6,276$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,838.118618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes54c6,073$3,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,794.4624115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf328…2b78backed Yes52c6,034$3,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.643360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes40c5,695$2,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,427.5611556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes73c5,382$3,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4304822.9%11 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed No57c5,316$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,016.021747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes45c5,298$2,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.0659225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes43c5,016$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.4960127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No70c4,439$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,095.7654675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes31c4,376$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,035.5710818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes47c4,352$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,326.9976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes54c4,215$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.96944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+46.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x294a…bbbabacked Yes67c4,000$2,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3202626.9%7 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+210.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac42…22f1backed No39c3,989$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.681080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes48c3,962$1,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.7818722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4127…f4d1backed Yes77c3,763$2,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes72c3,630$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.2446521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No29c3,228$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.9612429.8%37 W · 87 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbc6…2b42backed No47c3,170$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.864770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed No32c3,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9602326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes37c2,977$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,880.0822718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes22c2,975$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.4124815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes72c2,615$1,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.3253817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes29c2,557$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.121,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e7…fa5fbacked Yes65c2,554$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes56c2,521$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.642445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes72c2,484$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.6410824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes44c2,399$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.0917919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No28c2,334$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.017945.6%36 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes44c2,306$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,297.7788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No55c2,300$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.9223464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes40c2,160$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,290.7831722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x460c…d25fbacked Yes37c2,079$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.054325.6%11 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed No58c2,050$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.357613.2%10 W · 66 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes35c2,047$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.687035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No38c2,002$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.162539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes72c1,952$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.534427.3%12 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c1,934$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,556.4478811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes73c1,900$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.082630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes58c1,858$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.235228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No57c1,858$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.8210857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd44c…d5a6backed No35c1,850$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.11560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes24c1,848$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.912556%14 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No46c1,745$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.4656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes34c1,741$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.3110610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes45c1,721$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.3446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799e…018dbacked Yes61c1,686$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.58837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7525…1ab3backed No63c1,660$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.284833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes63c1,634$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.5341017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b25…a545backed No36c1,608$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.693429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdac3…03eebacked Yes65c1,601$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.451877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+45%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No51c1,600$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.4816969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes49c1,599$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82029225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes36c1,585$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.3219726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes77c1,520$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.6736018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94511421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes45c1,451$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804.988017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No78c1,400$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09218123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes73c1,366$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.157936.7%29 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes44c1,344$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.8734833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes53c1,317$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.6411417.5%20 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes61c1,220$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.36532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes53c1,191$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.3519550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes34c1,178$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.4825023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No39c1,161$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.071,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes40c1,158$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.783426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes63c1,150$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.582714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8928…4887backed Yes70c1,139$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.523135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2364…d963backed No59c1,138$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.242171.4%15 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked No22c1,109$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.656814.7%10 W · 58 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes24c1,105$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.419222.8%21 W · 71 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+151.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes18c1,080$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.4812514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes35c1,063$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.9656817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf594…3cb2backed No47c1,053$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.954070%28 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes44c1,053$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.710817.6%19 W · 89 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f3…3a31backed No26c1,004$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.792634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes37c1,003$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.2913318%24 W · 109 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes31c999.99$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.6718822.3%42 W · 146 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes20c999.98$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.992859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes14c999.97$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.985815.5%9 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+98.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f72…664abacked Yes52c974.5$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No45c960.96$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.1913430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes18c906.86$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.4632110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes23c900.15$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.661,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes22c900$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69915017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d78…7defbacked Yes77c893.43$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.782245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes51c882.11$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.6899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes28c870.43$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.7514411.1%16 W · 128 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No57c867.32$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.719711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked Yes78c833$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.267233.3%24 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes73c825.09$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.097544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes72c810.06$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9121233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d96…f714backed Yes16c795.07$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.86540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes60c780.07$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.032359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.