Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda07eecc5c5dda29e4955f62eab0026ac629d13896b0028827ad810198975602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $688,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $789,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $688,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 532 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 79c | 24,070$18,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,162.28 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 58c | 10,042$5,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,870.95 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 60c | 9,206$5,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.46 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 30c | 7,884$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,495.33 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 46c | 7,472$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420.43 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 0c | 7,072$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 39c | 6,276$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,838.1 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 54c | 6,073$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,794.46 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 52c | 6,034$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 40c | 5,695$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,427.56 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…89f3backed Yes | 73c | 5,382$3,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…71a0backed No | 57c | 5,316$3,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,016.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 45c | 5,298$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,927.06 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 43c | 5,016$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,881.49 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 4,439$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.76 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 31c | 4,376$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.57 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 4,352$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,326.99 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…b8c6backed Yes | 54c | 4,215$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…bbbabacked Yes | 67c | 4,000$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…22f1backed No | 39c | 3,989$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 48c | 3,962$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,051.78 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…f4d1backed Yes | 77c | 3,763$2,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 72c | 3,630$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.24 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 29c | 3,228$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.96 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…2b42backed No | 47c | 3,170$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.86 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…e958backed No | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 37c | 2,977$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.08 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 22c | 2,975$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330.41 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 72c | 2,615$1,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.32 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 29c | 2,557$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.12 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…fa5fbacked Yes | 65c | 2,554$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes | 56c | 2,521$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.64 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 72c | 2,484$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.64 | 108 | 24.1%26 W · 82 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 44c | 2,399$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.09 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed No | 28c | 2,334$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.01 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 44c | 2,306$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.77 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 55c | 2,300$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.92 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 40c | 2,160$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.78 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 37c | 2,079$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.05 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…24d6backed No | 58c | 2,050$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,182.35 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 35c | 2,047$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.68 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 38c | 2,002$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.1 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 72c | 1,952$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.53 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 1,934$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.44 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed Yes | 73c | 1,900$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.08 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 58c | 1,858$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.23 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 57c | 1,858$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.82 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…d5a6backed No | 35c | 1,850$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes | 24c | 1,848$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.91 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 46c | 1,745$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.46 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 34c | 1,741$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.31 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 45c | 1,721$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.34 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…018dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,686$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…1ab3backed No | 63c | 1,660$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.28 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 63c | 1,634$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.53 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b25…a545backed No | 36c | 1,608$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.69 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdac3…03eebacked Yes | 65c | 1,601$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.45 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 51c | 1,600$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.48 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 49c | 1,599$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 36c | 1,585$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.32 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 77c | 1,520$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.67 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 45c | 1,451$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.9 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 78c | 1,400$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 73c | 1,366$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.15 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 44c | 1,344$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.87 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 53c | 1,317$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.64 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 61c | 1,220$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.3 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 53c | 1,191$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.35 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 34c | 1,178$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.48 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 39c | 1,161$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.07 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb7…7331backed Yes | 40c | 1,158$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.78 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 63c | 1,150$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.5 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…4887backed Yes | 70c | 1,139$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.52 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2364…d963backed No | 59c | 1,138$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.24 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…42eabacked No | 22c | 1,109$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.65 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 24c | 1,105$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.41 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 18c | 1,080$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.48 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 35c | 1,063$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.96 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…3cb2backed No | 47c | 1,053$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 44c | 1,053$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.7 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…3a31backed No | 26c | 1,004$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.79 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,003$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.29 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 31c | 999.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.67 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 20c | 999.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.99 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.98 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…664abacked Yes | 52c | 974.5$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 45c | 960.96$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.19 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 18c | 906.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.46 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 23c | 900.15$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.66 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 22c | 900$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked Yes | 77c | 893.43$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.78 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 51c | 882.11$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.68 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 28c | 870.43$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.75 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 57c | 867.32$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.71 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 78c | 833$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes | 73c | 825.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.09 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 72c | 810.06$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.91 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…f714backed Yes | 16c | 795.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 60c | 780.07$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.03 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.