Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddc5a025f253d4257a11e5f89444dec364109f218b6f8e3fd26bb2c92a19d789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $248,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 37,463$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.6 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 1c | 14,547$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 4c | 10,202$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,075$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 5,520$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…c529backed Yes | 2c | 5,334$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 4,450$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.96 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,149$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…e19fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,900$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,890$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 1c | 2,728$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 2c | 2,290$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,173$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…dfb0backed Yes | 1c | 2,107$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…acf7backed Yes | 1c | 1,985$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,817$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,752$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 3c | 1,731$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf111…2a81backed Yes | 3c | 1,670$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 88 | 5.7%5 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 3c | 1,517$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 1,486$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,389$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…657bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,134$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…0272backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 16cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8de…6e44backed Yes | 1c | 961.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 3c | 873.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…041dbacked Yes | 3c | 776.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a7…d045backed Yes | 3c | 774.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 750.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 4c | 595.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…44c4backed Yes | 4c | 572.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e72…62ddbacked Yes | 6c | 542.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 3c | 499.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 3c | 442.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 4c | 440.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 6c | 438.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bf…3658backed Yes | 4c | 419.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 417.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 414.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…73acbacked Yes | 7c | 401.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 6c | 396.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…2a73backed Yes | 3c | 379.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 5c | 364.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 3c | 358$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 351$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…79b3backed Yes | 4c | 314.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…9cd2backed Yes | 4c | 307.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes | 5c | 302.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 277.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…a509backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…440dbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…32e4backed Yes | 5c | 208.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 132 | 29.5%39 W · 93 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd390…1b1cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2c…1381backed Yes | 8c | 144.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.