Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbdc2e127850715711508c461dcc4cacc36ff87f4a871ec42b0f550d150bf622
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $560,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $560,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 403 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 41,920$8,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,198.07 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 7c | 20,309$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.84 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 33c | 18,492$6,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,087.12 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 24c | 16,063$3,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.46 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 4c | 15,725$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.73 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 24c | 15,182$3,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,601.02 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,065$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 16c | 7,956$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.8 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 11c | 7,464$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.72 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 76c | 7,320$5,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.91 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 30c | 7,194$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.2 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 21c | 6,974$1,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.44 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c5…89f3backed Yes | 28c | 6,066$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.16 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 21c | 5,751$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.91 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 9c | 5,745$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.85 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 5,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.2 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 24c | 5,077$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.44 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 30c | 5,055$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.42 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 7c | 4,943$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.92 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,859$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.85 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 4,454$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 26c | 4,445$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 4,352$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.54 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 1c | 4,214$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 207 | 4.3%9 W · 198 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 24c | 3,987$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.32 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 23c | 3,426$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.44 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 3,036$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.13 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 18c | 3,028$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.98 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 10c | 2,830$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.33 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 10c | 2,775$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.92 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 68c | 2,644$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.94 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 18c | 2,636$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.25 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 8c | 2,472$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.61 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 35c | 2,391$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.1 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 2,329$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.65 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 3c | 2,300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e78backed No | 76c | 2,294$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.47 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed Yes | 30c | 2,186$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 70c | 2,082$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.13 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 3c | 2,005$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 16c | 1,990$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.4 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…2100backed No | 75c | 1,964$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…133fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,836$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.74 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 11c | 1,813$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.54 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 1,793$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,782$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes | 18c | 1,729$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 14c | 1,714$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…664abacked Yes | 22c | 1,695$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x799e…018dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,647$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 23c | 1,587$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.37 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 15c | 1,551$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.74 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 6c | 1,546$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 27c | 1,502$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.4 | 150 | 17.3%26 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 47c | 1,500$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.68 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 21c | 1,380$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.07 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,354$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 19c | 1,331$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.14 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,261$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.46 | 133 | 18%24 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 13c | 1,251$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,244$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.28 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 26c | 1,212$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.03 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…f4d1backed Yes | 42c | 1,203$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked Yes | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.75 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da8…4dd2backed Yes | 4c | 1,170$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +452.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 21c | 1,119$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 11c | 1,110$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 66c | 1,102$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.86 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 27c | 1,097$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,073$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.57 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…d25fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,019$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 27c | 1,011$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.1 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb7…7331backed Yes | 22c | 1,008$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.13 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1c…41cebacked Yes | 34c | 984$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 974.17$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 24c | 964.37$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.69 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 37c | 903.51$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.81 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 67c | 899.98$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.29 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…2fe2backed Yes | 43c | 893.69$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 886.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3318backed Yes | 23c | 883.84$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 43c | 863.43$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.72 | 193 | 17.6%34 W · 159 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 849.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 15c | 844$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 843.54$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…f604backed Yes | 34c | 806.96$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.11 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 27c | 801.72$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.89 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 39c | 799.99$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.4 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d78…7defbacked Yes | 23c | 792.07$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…4887backed Yes | 36c | 772.13$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.67 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked No | 78c | 771.46$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes | 8c | 705.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 17c | 700$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.