Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e820b695555a528a5900450939bcb79f27f9b96a4079ae69c24314f58c7eb8

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $240,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,180 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	20c	17,763$3,521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,521.12	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	16c	7,942$1,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,251.81	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1da3…24d6backed Yes	14c	7,051$1,005 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,005.47	76	13.2%10 W · 66 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	20c	5,935$1,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,199.09	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No	78c	5,077$3,957 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,119.91	40	70%28 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	71cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	20c	5,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	4,687$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	11c	4,293$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.49	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	4,209$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.6	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	6c	4,200$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	11c	3,437$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.91	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes	13c	3,357$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.63	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	3,228$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.81	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	15c	3,155$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.75	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	2,891$2,247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.25	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	2,426$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	20c	2,234$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.98	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	2,021$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.22	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes	16c	1,681$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.98	97	11.3%11 W · 86 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed No	78c	1,538$1,199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.31	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	15c	1,491$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.24	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	14c	1,437$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.8	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	10c	1,406$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.88	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	1c	1,400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes	9c	1,397$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.34	119	18.5%22 W · 97 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	15c	1,344$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	22c	1,308$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.72	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	21c	1,300$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.7	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	16c	1,179$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.5	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed No	78c	1,144$890 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.46	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	6c	1,137$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.41	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	21c	1,089$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.45	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	957.37$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.57	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Yes	23c	933.56$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.49	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d54…4d13backed Yes	27c	900$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	899.41$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.88	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	22c	866.28$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.58	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	14c	856.83$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.68	75	36%27 W · 48 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	21c	852.15$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.3	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	19c	703.96$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.59	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	80c	691.16$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.39	261	67%175 W · 86 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	21c	677.71$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.15	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	14c	649.99$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	23c	600$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	20c	582.74$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.92	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	17c	581.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.82	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	10c	573.48$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.35	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…bafebacked Yes	21c	568.51$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	76	28.9%22 W · 54 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb82…b721backed Yes	15c	564.29$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-2.5wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	20c	555$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…2a73backed Yes	19c	546.08$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.14	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-62%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	5c	537.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.23	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	19c	521.4$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.51	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	503.61$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.52	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	77c	498.13$384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.92	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	4c	498$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.92	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	11c	490.76$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.51	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes	22c	482.01$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.48	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	8c	469$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.52	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	22c	456.38$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	18c	430$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.19	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	25c	407.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes	11c	400.47$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.41	237	35.4%84 W · 153 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…99acbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	9c	399.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes	11c	394.82$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.28	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	9c	377.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes	17c	375.34$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.58	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8949…5e21backed No	80c	375$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	48	60.4%29 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	15c	370.8$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes	17c	368.42$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes	15c	363$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.19	228	24.1%55 W · 173 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	22c	350$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.5	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes	22c	348.99$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.2	91	16.5%15 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes	25c	341.42$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.38	46	13%6 W · 40 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes	7c	330$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	27cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbba9…2c41backed Yes	21c	309.52$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6700…36f9backed Yes	18c	300$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	56cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fff…9a5bbacked Yes	13c	296.7$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No	80c	290.76$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.15	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	73cpaid	+36.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6091…0b10backed Yes	5c	289.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ad…32e4backed Yes	7c	289.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	132	29.5%39 W · 93 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+29%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d22…ec35backed No	78c	271.88$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.81	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-76%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	22c	261.36$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	20c	260.25$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.05	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yes	14c	250.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.36	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes	21c	250$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ba…4586backed Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	37	32.4%12 W · 25 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	24cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a40…9cd2backed Yes	14c	225.88$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.77	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…3400backed Yes	23c	222.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	20c	220.31$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.02	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No	80c	214.3$171 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.57	90	58.9%53 W · 37 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	64cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18bf…3658backed Yes	19c	205.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d16…4d02backed Yes	19c	205.2$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd69d…fe68backed Yes	12c	203.92$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.10per pick	37cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?this page
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?Yes won
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event