AI · resolved market
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7e25254190ef11158d8cacd4b471074fc7b5dd8f6f6561e540c18a0aae548a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,029 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 1c | 5,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,034$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed No | 70c | 995$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…8033backed No | 31c | 647.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 69c | 632.74$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.43 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 78c | 630.17$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.22 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 73c | 510.09$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…1010backed No | 25c | 377.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x278e…42ecbacked No | 34c | 352.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 62c | 301$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7450…b5acbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 69c | 296.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 27c | 292.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 73c | 274.95$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1280…05a7backed No | 29c | 271.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked No | 25c | 250$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked No | 35c | 249.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 69c | 235$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…4927backed Yes | 74c | 217.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 67c | 187.6$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 32c | 164.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 69c | 163.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…7e6cbacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 12c | 147.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 34c | 146.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 70c | 134.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…15f7backed No | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 126.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 72c | 124.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 9c | 119.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…bcffbacked Yes | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 69c | 106.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Yes | 69c | 102.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…5e13backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…0a52backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 16c | 96.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 26c | 91.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 88.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…8375backed No | 25c | 86.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed No | 23c | 86.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 72c | 82.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 22c | 76.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 57.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 77c | 55.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…7228backed Yes | 66c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1363…566abacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…4c79backed No | 31c | 33.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdc…cb42backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?this page
- Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.