TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0606…1d57

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
128
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT5837.9%22 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+180.1%+$128.59
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.99
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Rockets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$66
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.33
Bulls vs. 76ersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.88
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.77
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Pelicans vs. Knicksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.5
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+120.2%+$128.3
Kings vs. Hornetsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Spread: Clippers (-13.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+106%+$56.6
Raptors vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.54
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Trail Blazers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Thunder vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+130.1%+$124.72
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.7
Jazz vs. Kingsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.9
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Kings vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.39
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT2532%8 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+400%+$320
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Big 12 conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Utah State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will Kentucky win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.75
SMU Mustangs vs. Miami (OH) RedHawksbacked SMU Mustangs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$354.74
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.19
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Kansas Jayhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.72
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$27.6
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.55
Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: O/U 160.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Davidson Wildcats vs. St. Bonaventure Bonniesbacked St. Bonaventure Bonnies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$367.39
St. John's Red Storm vs. Seton Hall Piratesbacked Seton Hall Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$113.76
Buffalo Bulls vs. Toledo Rocketsbacked Toledo Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+37%+$56.15
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Lipscomb Bisonsbacked Lipscomb Bisons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$86.7
Spread: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (-3.5)backed Southeast Missouri State Redhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$86.1
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Alcorn State Braves: O/U 149.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+69.5%+$11.43
Pepperdine Waves vs. Portland Pilotsbacked Pepperdine Waves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.87
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-18.5)backed Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200.73
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-12.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$47.02
North Florida Ospreys vs. West Georgia Wolves: O/U 157.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$54.82
Bryant Bulldogs vs. New Hampshire Wildcatsbacked New Hampshire Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$102.94
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Northern Iowa Panthersbacked Northern Iowa Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$237
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Marshall Thundering Herdbacked Old Dominion Monarchs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20.02
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawksbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$22.95
All 25 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
Oilers vs. Utah: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.93
Oilers vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.5
Devils vs. Starsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$61
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.87
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$112
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.01
Blackhawks vs. Islandersbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.5
Blue Jackets vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Kings vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$112.5
Bruins vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.79
Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$109.19
Utah vs. Flyersbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+88.7%+$100.58
Predators vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$202.54
Bruins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+98%+$207.9
Spread: Devils (-1.5)backed Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$48.58
All 17 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+67.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+71.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.59
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$68.24
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+43.4%+$6.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.