NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ab14a1288163cc682646dea0feb4e1616ab25313ce194a457103def08dc0f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,534 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 51c | 11,341$5,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,825.35 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 56c | 10,121$5,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,667.88 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Under | 49c | 3,941$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 2,893$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.06 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 48c | 2,328$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.85 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 2,222$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.44 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 2,169$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.91 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 53c | 1,900$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.25 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,808$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.91 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 1,783$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.99 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 1,449$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.36 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 54c | 1,156$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.21 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Under | 49c | 1,005$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.55 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 48c | 999.98$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 44c | 936$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.16 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 45c | 762$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.1 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 47c | 750$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.5 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Under | 49c | 668.78$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.78 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 44c | 530.7$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.58 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Under | 48c | 495.33$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 410$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.03 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 390.15$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.48 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 325.02$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 44c | 319.66$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.01 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Under | 44c | 275$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 252.1$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 48c | 248.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…0c4fbacked Over | 52c | 221.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…1d57backed Under | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 49c | 204.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Under | 44c | 201.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 56c | 198.73$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.9 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…c01cbacked Under | 49c | 196.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc494…36c9backed Under | 49c | 190.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 55c | 179.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Under | 48c | 169.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3b…4b00backed Over | 52c | 165.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…c229backed Under | 48c | 133$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 54c | 130.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Under | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 56c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…9da8backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…f9d5backed Under | 47c | 93.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 56c | 88.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 52c | 83.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 37c | 74.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked Under | 63c | 74.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 71.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Under | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 44c | 66.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Under | 45c | 53.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…1f7dbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 45c | 48.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Over | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Under | 45c | 38.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 51c | 32.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…79e8backed Under | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 58c | 30.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 60c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 68c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. SabresCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.