NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf64e542c190e1e6e2fe8e043595d6bb3a77fd109e5ebe9e58789722e295abe46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Sabres, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,416 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Sabres | 46c | 9,465$4,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,346.6 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Capitals | 54c | 6,116$3,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,813.37 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 45c | 2,883$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.59 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Capitals | 55c | 2,220$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.04 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Capitals | 54c | 1,470$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.93 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Capitals | 55c | 1,351$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.09 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Capitals | 54c | 1,187$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.83 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Sabres | 44c | 796.67$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…bcd1backed Sabres | 46c | 534.39$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Capitals | 54c | 520$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.2 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Sabres | 44c | 395$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Capitals | 56c | 375.9$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.4 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Capitals | 56c | 292.76$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Capitals | 54c | 282.94$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.15 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Sabres | 46c | 272.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Capitals | 57c | 260$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Sabres | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 393 | 43%169 W · 224 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Capitals | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Capitals | 56c | 166$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Capitals | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…eababacked Sabres | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…11c3backed Capitals | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Sabres | 45c | 90.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Sabres | 45c | 89.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sabres | 45c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Capitals | 54c | 66.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Capitals | 55c | 65.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Sabres | 49c | 57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 345 | 38.6%133 W · 212 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Capitals | 55c | 54.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Capitals | 55c | 54.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Sabres | 45c | 41.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Sabres | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Sabres | 53c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Capitals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Capitals | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Capitals | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 54c | 25.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Capitals | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…9bc9backed Capitals | 56c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. SabresCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.