Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50443159a0acbb22849539658f2147bd86348f467436d8af9d0b5925eb864bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 0c | 10,009$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 5c | 4,420$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.48 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 3,185$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,954$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 11c | 1,996$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.98 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 5c | 1,766$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,206$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 11c | 1,155$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,080$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed Yes | 30c | 999.95$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 73c | 833.93$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.31 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 4c | 726.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 10c | 699.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 14c | 678.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 18c | 590.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…a738backed Yes | 10c | 550$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…dec3backed Yes | 5c | 486.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +367.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4f…d890backed Yes | 7c | 483.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 37c | 467.77$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.79 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c6…05c1backed Yes | 4c | 384.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…f560backed Yes | 17c | 366.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 351.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…e079backed Yes | 43c | 336.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 313.92$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes | 20c | 289.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 13c | 288.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…d38fbacked Yes | 24c | 283.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 31c | 272.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 259.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 37c | 249.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…6934backed Yes | 21c | 245.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 220.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 41c | 218$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 209.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.5 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 50c | 207.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e100backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 69c | 199.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 199.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbee…7b46backed Yes | 58c | 198.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed Yes | 55c | 180.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…0813backed Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…d7a8backed Yes | 28c | 159.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes | 45c | 153.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc81…e072backed Yes | 10c | 150.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…824cbacked Yes | 37c | 149.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 148.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 14c | 136.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 133.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 128.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 40c | 124.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 123.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 119.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 50c | 116.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked Yes | 9c | 109.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 17c | 106.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…e30dbacked Yes | 61c | 105.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 43c | 100.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…485abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…8832backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed Yes | 47c | 98.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 62c | 97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 93.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 21c | 93.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…0f58backed Yes | 30c | 91.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8789…9c0ebacked Yes | 23c | 88.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5de…d515backed Yes | 16c | 80.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7266…762ebacked Yes | 38c | 76.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43c…989bbacked Yes | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 31c | 74.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 48c | 73.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…4e1fbacked Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 35c | 64.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 68c | 63.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…cb02backed No | 63c | 63.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…e946backed No | 79c | 60.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ed…0711backed Yes | 48c | 58.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x095e…4beebacked Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8826…9483backed Yes | 36c | 55.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes | 52c | 54.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 51c | 54.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 54c | 53.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 76c | 52.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…33a6backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…d1b8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…5511backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…0058backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 55c | 47.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…ff06backed Yes | 64c | 47.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…3e11backed No | 61c | 42.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…59e7backed Yes | 47c | 41.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Yes | 56c | 41.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 40c | 40.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.