Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9205ab1d1d2e5ec8b35a5514a40a022606019eb2edd4cb038dc2b26d445f5d71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 4,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 23c | 4,070$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.95 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…1358backed Yes | 3c | 2,879$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 2c | 2,192$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 8c | 1,927$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Yes | 2c | 1,855$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed Yes | 9c | 1,039$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes | 7c | 1,004$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 859.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 858.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 827.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 746.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b43…1894backed Yes | 2c | 636.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 19c | 430.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5de…d515backed Yes | 6c | 388.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 7c | 386.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65da…69d2backed Yes | 7c | 349.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 8c | 333.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 6c | 305.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 299.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c4…a5cbbacked Yes | 5c | 274$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 271.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 251.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 5c | 227.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes | 9c | 195.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 77c | 193.44$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed Yes | 11c | 185.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 8c | 177.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 164.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 163.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 155.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x062d…4221backed Yes | 7c | 147.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 12c | 145.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 9c | 133.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 10c | 119.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 12c | 109.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6b…122ebacked Yes | 14c | 106.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 20c | 98.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 53.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on January 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.