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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,063

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,677 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fb7…61e9backed No2c1,025$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1824010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed No2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes37c422.36$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.0118727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c415.07$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.3917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No60c397.36$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8884759.4%503 W · 344 L+41.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8907…a996backed Yes51c390.71$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.721735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes44c380.22$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.5255025.3%139 W · 411 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No16c351.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8217243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes32c305.94$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.181,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59bb…03f1backed No7c289.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4f…d890backed No5c280.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.584325.6%11 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes62c252.21$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.211,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c227.58$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.923,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b4d…4535backed Yes61c216.48$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.81520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-67.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes69c213.26$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed Yes58c200.02$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.384348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No45c199.71$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3963656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa771…5a8bbacked Yes62c162.21$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.951675%12 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No33c162.09$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf43c…989bbacked Yes53c158.93$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.562737%10 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8bf…fef1backed Yes47c158.07$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.36944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes74c151.51$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0210542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes37c147.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2211436.8%42 W · 72 L-12.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes64c142.83$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5254037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbc…3b01backed Yes64c125.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.443915.4%6 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes13c121.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed Yes31c101.39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes44c100.18$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.816036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf7…9f98backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.327057.1%40 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf734…2b7ebacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.62240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0031…485abacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No17c95.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.289392.4%23 W · 916 L-386.8wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.4%equal weight5-0.40 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c95.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.712,83711.2%317 W · 2,520 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc81b…b3c7backed Yes47c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.842045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes63c89.92$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3643550.6%220 W · 215 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes57c87.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.811546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No23c86.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2855919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c86.03$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.557,56437.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L+95.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes22c82.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.793134%317 W · 614 L+53.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8696…6175backed Yes57c82.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes42c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.66139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…4f3abacked Yes69c76.35$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes61c75.36$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6811359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes23c75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7526236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdef0…9c46backed Yes37c71.59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.018038.8%31 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200d…7b9abacked Yes72c71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd895…0099backed No26c70.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…cf3dbacked Yes61c69.65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0113223.5%31 W · 101 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39e7…4e1fbacked Yes32c66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52c…33a6backed Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3f9…0975backed No39c59.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.160%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked Yes72c55.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.828250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1043…253abacked No72c55.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick63cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d18…63cabacked No49c53.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.592142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes70c52.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0219133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes76c51.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.329139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.41776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x383c…d1b8backed Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.534457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…0058backed Yes33c48.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No39c46.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.074953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…6732backed Yes38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.753243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0f…db07backed No76c41.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.26862.5%5 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick74cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed No56c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.652833.3%176 W · 352 L+23.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes52c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.064963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.747950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0312…c713backed Yes68c36.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd7…c8d8backed Yes53c35.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1436…3e11backed No50c35.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes70c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.464333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368e…dca0backed No50c31.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f48…9820backed Yes64c30.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.14862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes65c30.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6314338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Yes72c30.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6513946%64 W · 75 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes66c30.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4614736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc0…f481backed Yes59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.38100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x666f…9ddfbacked No74c29.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9310726.2%28 W · 79 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08fc…3c2dbacked Yes64c29.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.525540%22 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5de…d515backed Yes70c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No71c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.881,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes44c26.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.594032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdce…c141backed Yes58c26.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+69.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e90…0541backed No53c25.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7184…56d7backed Yes76c24.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.89862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+71.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f4…6a3ebacked Yes75c24.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.011729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x459a…18a6backed No75c23.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick67cpaid-21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3224…67bebacked Yes63c22.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.574100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd464…fc1cbacked Yes54c22.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9529…526cbacked Yes70c21.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.421266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5865…b20abacked Yes61c21.36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.33650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe745…297abacked No50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x918e…b94cbacked No52c20.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86f…f7fbbacked Yes57c20.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ee…cc59backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe43b…c3d0backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-35.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1017644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes57c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.69048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.