TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe52c…33a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 400m and 440m by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$64.68
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$72.4
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+112.8%+$31.8
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$17.25
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$113.55
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 62m and 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+365.8%+$78.53
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$95.41
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$41.15
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 143m and 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$110.92
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+63.9%+$78
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be between 129m and 143m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$82.69
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$252.55
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$169.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$19.05
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+100%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11.92
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13.7
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.49
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$53.72
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20.25
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+55%+$7.1
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.1
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+130.3%+$19.8
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+130.8%+$34
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 52°F or higher on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.8
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20.3
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on January 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$25.93
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.95
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST1020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+215.5%+$68.3
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$36.7
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30.41
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$26.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+700%+$700
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+190.9%+$80.16
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Rockets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Pelicans vs. Spursbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 5 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+115.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+132.6%+$16.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$186.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+98.6%+$9.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.