Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aaef8e673ea1b62cda0231b6e9eb0c82c444c872967d859cedabba9f5d49beb

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,010,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $306,579

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,010,690 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	239,058$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,259.77	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	220,973$651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.89	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	82,217$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	14c	31,790$4,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,451.76	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6087…9254backed Yes	0c	25,013$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	10,631$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	1c	8,433$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	1c	8,355$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.39	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,059$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.33	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	1c	7,887$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.63	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	15c	6,770$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	6,455$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.93	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	5,909$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.66	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	4c	5,542$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.83	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	8c	5,442$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.49	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	14c	5,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.99	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	4,746$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.6	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	3,999$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	3,609$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.56	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	3,563$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	3,483$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.15	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	7c	3,254$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.24	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes	2c	3,017$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	14c	2,772$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	2,540$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.36	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	2c	2,520$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	2c	2,519$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	12c	2,500$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	14c	2,146$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,145$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.55	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	5c	2,141$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.63	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	8c	2,105$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.99	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	2,045$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.12	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,020$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	2,011$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.35	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,956$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.38	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,915$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes	13c	1,905$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.04	177	22.6%40 W · 137 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	5c	1,900$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.4	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,816$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.92	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	1,784$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.68	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,738$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	8c	1,727$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.37	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	6c	1,602$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.12	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	1c	1,365$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	4c	1,322$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.87	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…48b5backed Yes	1c	1,242$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	8c	1,240$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	8c	1,196$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	1,095$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,077$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.98	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	9c	1,063$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	1,049$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	1,034$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.31	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	4c	1,001$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.02	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x620d…1a14backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5d…db78backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	16c	939.35$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1488…e492backed Yes	4c	917$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.93	179	24.6%44 W · 135 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	7c	914.68$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.18	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	2c	890$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	12c	799.56$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.83	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Yes	2c	789.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	16c	750$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	4c	724.47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.46	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe7…068abacked Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	14c	711.35$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.96	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	15c	700$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	5c	664.97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	2c	637.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	11c	636.21$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.29	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	2c	633.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc13d…4bdabacked Yes	10c	631.24$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.12	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes	2c	625.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	624.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.25	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	6c	617.83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	8c	608.6$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.3	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	8c	602.78$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	600.73$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.08	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ef…682fbacked Yes	12c	580$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.6	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	7c	573.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	5c	565.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	7c	553.9$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	3c	547.59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.74	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	11c	545.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	6c	540$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	5c	539.97$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	7c	524.94$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	523.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Yes	8c	508.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event