Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0778557b71d1baa6927ce3cd165b6d111ade46a87d4b6fc4012f07ae0e38051

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,406,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $959,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,406,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	437,053$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.33	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes	0c	255,512$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.51	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes	0c	80,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	33,574$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.18	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc91d…7529backed Yes	0c	33,196$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	0c	18,014$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	13,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	12,889$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.59	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,782$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.96	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	0c	6,402$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908e…89e9backed Yes	0c	5,424$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,149$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.27	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	4c	4,444$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.75	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	1c	3,738$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.47	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	0c	3,738$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	3,685$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a41…a84abacked Yes	0c	3,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+94.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	3,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.99	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06d…b73fbacked Yes	1c	2,974$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	1c	2,249$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	1c	2,130$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,443$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	2c	1,123$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	3c	1,030$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.17	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	4c	999.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	646.43$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	624.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	499.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	4c	499.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	324.34$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	8c	148.22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event