Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd448cf9e965692ee0655ba2de84fe8a33c27967d7959dad2d189afad81af64e9

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $516,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $208,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,143 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	155,000$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	34,743$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.74	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	13,679$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	12,523$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.43	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	2c	8,584$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.22	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	8,012$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	4c	7,487$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.07	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	8c	7,393$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	5,395$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	2c	4,293$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.6	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	2c	4,038$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.55	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	8c	3,910$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.55	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,819$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	3,417$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.08	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,657$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.82	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	2,200$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.6	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	5c	2,180$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.38	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	7c	2,161$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.88	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ddd…950bbacked Yes	2c	2,100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.7	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	4c	2,055$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.96	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	1,973$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.47	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	1,926$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.21	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,744$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	2c	1,500$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Yes	7c	1,468$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.34	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	7c	1,414$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	7c	1,363$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,330$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.25	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,289$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.75	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	3c	1,210$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	2c	1,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	8c	1,168$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.07	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	1,163$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.53	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	9c	1,158$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc82b…ae40backed Yes	4c	1,033$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+116.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	6c	1,003$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.66	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	4c	999.98$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6855…7acabacked Yes	2c	967.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	7c	898.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.85	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	842.82$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.53	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	827.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	821.92$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	770.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	764.62$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	7c	750.64$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.93	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	7c	722.32$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	7c	700.06$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.95	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	684.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…9ff3backed Yes	3c	676.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d40…5387backed Yes	8c	650.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	3c	636.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	4c	625$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.12	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Yes	8c	609.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	7c	599.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	599.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	536.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	7c	509.35$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x386c…389ebacked Yes	8c	506.02$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	5c	484.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90a9…5ab5backed Yes	2c	453.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc77…ea25backed Yes	5c	453.19$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…61e2backed Yes	5c	420$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f6…6feabacked Yes	5c	398.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…9008backed Yes	8c	380$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.16	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	6c	373.15$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc0…4e85backed Yes	4c	362.32$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	5c	353.51$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	6c	352.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	9c	324.23$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	6c	310.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe52c…33a6backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	10	20%2 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed Yes	6c	299.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094c…e608backed Yes	7c	288.52$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	8c	265.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aad…ff47backed Yes	8c	253.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	7c	247.97$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x602f…20e1backed Yes	7c	244.44$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd587…044ebacked Yes	6c	232.18$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	5c	226.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8353…c9cdbacked Yes	7c	215.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	6.2%4 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8085…0243backed Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	5c	199.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes	7c	190.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	7c	181.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ea1…5c7cbacked Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	8c	140.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event