Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4e15a849a171f89191f508618b8e8e9025cc7843f1a53a466a601d33c21e8c

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $891,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $406,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $891,582 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	37,724$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.52	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	32,778$1,917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,916.6	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	31,978$3,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,291.07	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	24,171$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882.85	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	17,776$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bf5…46e4backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	0c	13,644$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	12,773$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.83	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	5c	12,253$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.92	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	10,723$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.32	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	19c	10,000$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	4c	8,231$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.31	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	12c	8,096$972 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	11c	8,086$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	5c	7,311$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.41	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	7,030$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.14	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	9c	6,831$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.03	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	6,482$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.48	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	8c	6,378$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.45	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	10c	6,200$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.67	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	6,095$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.23	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	5c	5,909$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.45	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	5,529$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	5,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes	8c	4,759$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.52	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	6c	4,754$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.26	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc361…38babacked Yes	6c	4,627$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	17c	4,534$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.66	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	4,297$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.2	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	4,128$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.59	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	11c	3,922$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.77	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	3c	3,917$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.51	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	15c	3,776$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	10c	3,600$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.34	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	3c	2,916$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.76	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…241bbacked Yes	22c	2,557$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551	69	10.1%7 W · 62 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4b…71f0backed Yes	17c	2,502$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418	93	10.8%10 W · 83 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	2c	2,482$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.42	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	6c	2,382$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.12	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226a…6411backed Yes	10c	2,370$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.69	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,314$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.24	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes	8c	2,063$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.98	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e9b…7ff2backed Yes	18c	2,037$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.17	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	7c	2,018$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.02	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	7c	1,883$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	11c	1,869$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.73	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed Yes	6c	1,751$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.97	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	1,674$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	7c	1,640$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.56	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	9c	1,611$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.3	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	10c	1,587$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.64	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,550$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	5c	1,516$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.43	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	1,512$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.54	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	13c	1,455$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.15	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,433$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.26	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…ab7dbacked Yes	9c	1,430$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.49	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	7c	1,425$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.64	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,421$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.3	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,416$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.75	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	14c	1,387$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	1,370$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.24	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	7c	1,329$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.26	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	1,300$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.97	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	8c	1,297$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	8c	1,291$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.09	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	8c	1,256$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	8c	1,251$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1c6…61fdbacked Yes	5c	1,240$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.13	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	1,221$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.1	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9c…5191backed Yes	6c	1,167$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.1	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	13c	1,131$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	9c	1,088$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.38	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b5…7ba6backed Yes	10c	1,032$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	10c	1,032$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	5c	1,021$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.03	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	999.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	999.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	17c	988.02$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.86	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed Yes	9c	972.51$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.53	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	960.67$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5694…9baebacked Yes	10c	959.54$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.71	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	6c	947.86$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.55	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	8c	936.04$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.61	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x160d…cefebacked Yes	6c	927.88$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	6c	902.7$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	11c	899.68$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.48	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa7…0b13backed Yes	7c	892.03$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	884.05$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.48	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	7c	881.55$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	4c	862.44$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.64	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event