TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,567,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,126,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,567,605 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes0c261,871$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.298719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes0c111,755$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.171,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes0c80,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006415.6%10 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes0c40,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes0c24,744$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.74120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes1c22,897$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.069410.6%10 W · 84 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c20,421$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.354165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes0c19,668$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.42355.7%2 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5805…fab2backed Yes0c15,472$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1453…959dbacked Yes0c15,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes0c15,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60417.3%3 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes0c13,412$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.848616.3%14 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c13,367$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.54590%0 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes0c10,887$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40424.8%2 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c10,595$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c10,167$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.781,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes0c9,989$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.581389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked Yes0c9,476$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes6c8,835$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.8629331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes1c8,444$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.445325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58e6…2c48backed Yes0c7,518$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66977.2%7 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa955…7e84backed Yes1c7,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c7,469$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.661185.1%6 W · 112 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+94.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes0c6,400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87912.7%10 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c6,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes1c5,600$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.14789%7 W · 71 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes1c5,396$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605016%8 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6794…c10dbacked Yes0c5,253$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.28520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick3cpaid+428%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a41…a84abacked Yes1c5,075$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+94.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510513.3%14 W · 91 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes1c4,916$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4556817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes0c4,800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.04559.1%5 W · 50 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63ea…2072backed Yes3c4,436$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.735820.7%12 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c4,169$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.522,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfae8…fd3dbacked Yes1c4,046$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes1c3,695$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.84704.3%3 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-87.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes0c3,532$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66977.2%7 W · 90 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes0c3,221$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14160%0 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes1c3,177$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.18914.4%4 W · 87 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c3,163$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.632615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9915812%19 W · 139 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes0c2,950$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.754869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c2,925$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.066915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c2,919$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31824.9%9 W · 173 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes1c2,900$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710811.1%12 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+70.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c2,656$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.212794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa79f…ff1bbacked Yes1c2,293$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes1c2,287$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303810.5%4 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes1c2,197$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0182614.9%123 W · 703 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed Yes1c2,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd2…bd7ebacked Yes1c2,029$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes6c2,013$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7573115.2%111 W · 620 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-88.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes3c2,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes1c2,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.255718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,948$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.472,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes1c1,899$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10466.5%3 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes2c1,848$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c1,758$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.554345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes1c1,745$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4741017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes1c1,578$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.477966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes1c1,551$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.011109.1%10 W · 100 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-32.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes1c1,370$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.613716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc90…9e95backed Yes1c1,318$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf82d…cd54backed Yes1c1,311$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed Yes1c1,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52313%3 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes1c1,208$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818116%29 W · 152 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2682711%91 W · 736 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes8c999.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801266.3%8 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes1c993.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102520%5 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes9c697.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes3c652.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205617.9%10 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6163…61c6backed Yes10c518.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.81922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39b7…db6fbacked Yes2c501.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.71414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes3c500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.252068.7%18 W · 188 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes6c499.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32486.3%3 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes5c499.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25512%1 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f5…7f78backed Yes9c444.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20521.9%1 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick8cpaid-80.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.